Equity Wrapup 5/31

Looking at the four equity markets (S&P, dow, nasdaq, and russell) we see that of these, only the russell actually broke a new major low peak (@813.4) in the last couple weeks, and the rest only seem to have made deep retracements. The russell is also the only one now that has firmly broken past the top level 61.8% retracement (@845) of this down move. The other three are either right at the top or still inside the major levels of the most recent move (all retracements shown in red on charts). It looks like barring a major reversal tomorrow (which is always possible), we are heading back to an uptrend in the equity market for the time being, with confirmation coming as all the markets break past 61.8% level or breaking new yearly highs. I'll go ahead and say it here that it might be time to BTFD if you haven't already.

Equities weekly wrap-up 5/27

I think since we've started this blog we have been advocating a short position in equities markets. While the last few days have not been kind after a good start to the week, I think there is strong evidence that there is nothing to panic about in all 4 markets. The retracements in yellow are the retracements of the last up move before the downtrend began, and all 4 markets broke below the lowest retracement level of these on Tuesday or Wednesday, indicating an end to the uptrend. We've also held the retracement for the most recent down move (in purple) in all 4 markets. As is the case most of the time, we leave into a long weekend with a lot of uncertainty sitting on important levels. All four markets sit at a confluence of retracements except the S&P. The Russell is the only one to break past the 38% retracement of the most recent downmove, but now sits at the 50% and also the most recent peak from last week. I think we look to continue the down swing on Tuesday, but any higher than we finished today and we might end up in a no trend area, which is always danger for swing traders.

Equity Wrapup 5/23 3:30 PM CST

After we saw a large slip in the equities market in the Asian and European sessions last night, we see not much activity today as some major supports were broken in both the ES and TF markets. Both tested these levels during the US session but failed to hold any ground. Most of the equity indexes have been forming a downward channel since their yearly peaks, and for atleast the TF we see it reaching major support highlighted with the yellow line on the daily chart. It feels as though there will be a couple options overnight, either we just break this support and pop back up, maybe having a couple day rally back to the tops of these channels or these markets make a statement tonight and tomorrow with a strong down day. I've personally peeled half of my short position (mostly puts on bull etfs) and will wait to see how these next few days go.