Friday, May 27, 2011

Equities weekly wrap-up 5/27

I think since we've started this blog we have been advocating a short position in equities markets. While the last few days have not been kind after a good start to the week, I think there is strong evidence that there is nothing to panic about in all 4 markets. The retracements in yellow are the retracements of the last up move before the downtrend began, and all 4 markets broke below the lowest retracement level of these on Tuesday or Wednesday, indicating an end to the uptrend. We've also held the retracement for the most recent down move (in purple) in all 4 markets. As is the case most of the time, we leave into a long weekend with a lot of uncertainty sitting on important levels. All four markets sit at a confluence of retracements except the S&P. The Russell is the only one to break past the 38% retracement of the most recent downmove, but now sits at the 50% and also the most recent peak from last week. I think we look to continue the down swing on Tuesday, but any higher than we finished today and we might end up in a no trend area, which is always danger for swing traders.

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