Tuesday, June 28, 2011

Dollar Index (DX) Important Support 6/28

I figured instead of posting on the euro and stocks and anything else I would just post on what seems to be driving them all at this time. Right now we have just cracked some important support in the dollar index formed by the retracements of the most recent up move (shown in purple) from last week and the up move produced from our lows at 73.665 (shown in yellow). We can see that we are getting a confluence of support between fib levels around 75.516-75.463. We spiked below this brifely and are now sitting just at the lower side of this zone. Whether or not we hold this level I think will ultimatly decide where most markets end up. The most recent spike down has formed some divergence as there was not much move in the MACD on the spike. While the dollar has not made new highs, it has for the most part been making higher lows seen in this chart, and it looks like it is building momentum to break to the upside. If we see a strong break of this current support I would not be short too many markets priced in dollars and would look to 74.845-74.755 for the next major support level.

WTI Crude Oil Rejecting 92.25 Key Resistance. 10:05 AM CST 6/28

(Chart 1 - WTI Crude 60 min)
(Chart 2 - WTI Crude Daily)

92.25 is a very important level. Today we rallied into 92.19 and couldnt get over it.
Last few hrs on the 60 min chart have very long upper wicks on the candles when it gets near 92.25, indicating continued selling interest at that level.

On the daily chart, 92.25 is also near the low line of the old bearish channel we were in (magenta channel).

I shorted oil here and look for a move back to 90 initially and ultimately a target of 87.50 is very feasible.