Wednesday, July 6, 2011

Dolemite out until next week

Flattening up and heading out of town til Sunday
Sandwich will be posting updates when he gets time

Good luck and see you all next week.

Treasuries (TLT) Ready to resume trend 7/6

To the left is a daily chart of the ETF TLT which is basically bullish the long end of the treasury curve. The chart is a little messy so it might take a second to look at it, but basically we can see the retracements from the lows at 88.14 to our highs at 97.74 (in purple) and the retracement from 89.65 (low peak in trend which also produced a sub 0 MACD reading) to our highs again (in yellow). We can see price is just in the area where two levels from these retracement form a confluence at the 93.7-94.07 levels. We also notice that this area is the highs of the 3/16-3/23 date range. On 6/30 it put in a pretty good hammer through these levels and that hammers tail has held so far and today we start to break above its high. We can also see the green line which shows a trend of the lows matching up with the low peaks in the MACD histogram below. We are again seeing continuation divergence between price and the MACD as this ETF had seen on 4/10-4/11. I think this is a pretty good spot to get in on this trend and hopefully a ride to new highs.

Platinum (PL) Finding Resistance 7/6

To the left is a 4 hour chart of Platinum (PL) futures. It looks like it has run into a confluence of retracements (shown in yellow and purple) around the 1751-1758 level and showing some high candle wicks running up to those levels. It also has formed some divergence with the MACD between its peak on 6/29 with its peak overnight as shown in green. With price already reacing off this level and the divergence, it might be a little riskier just to jump in, but I think its worth a small shot as we could be heading below 1666.

Russell 2000 Looking Weak. 9:11 AM CST 7/6

(Chart 1 - Russell 2k Day Chart)

SNP still looks pretty good
Nasdaq certainly doesn't look weak
Russell 2k is generally a leading indicator, so it is no surprise that if weakness shows itself, it would show first in the Rus.

Since the high at the beginning of May, we have been making lower highs and lower lows.
This most recent run up has been pretty epic and strong.
However, we are still lower than the last peak.

Halfway through today, there is a nice bearish engulfing candle forming.
It happens to be forming off of 84.20, the bottom of the trading range, and a line of great resistance.

We also have the beginning of some hidden MACD divergence (white sloping lines)

If this keeps up, I think this could be a decent sell with a 78.20 target

BestBuy (BBY) **REQUEST** 7/6

Best Buy's daily chart to our left, it looks like we are starting to form a descending wedge (shown in yellow) since about the beginning of the year and after its giant sell off (not shown) previous to the end of the year. I think this could also be a low risk sell at this point to try to ride it to the other line as it seems like we are showing a small bit of divergence in the MACD. I would also think this could be a good straddle play sometime in the next months if we continue to squeeze into this wedge.

Microsoft (MSFT) **REQUEST** 7/6

Microsoft daily chart to the left and I can see a possible selling opportunity coming up. It looks like we are approaching a confluence of fib retracements at the 36.6/36.7 level (shown in purple and yellow). We also are showing a good bit of continuation divergence as the MACD pulls back considerably while we still are yet to really break a new high peak in price. I would wait for a signal of some type as I wouldnt want to catch a falling knife (or rising knife in this case). The only hesitation I have about this trade is that 23 is the lower end of its range in about forever so the profit target wouldn't be great, but still something could be made from this.

Silver Overbought and at Resistance. 7:55 AM CST 7/6

(Chart 1 - Silver Daily Chart)

I posted here over the weekend that silver would head up, but stall at the top of this magenta channel.

So far it has done this.
Halfway through the day, 35.94 is proving to be strong resistance.
Not a bad place to sell here with a 32.80 target.
Stop if it closes over 36