tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-75622134786012426842024-03-12T20:24:14.561-05:00Dead Cat BounceEven a dead cat will bounce if it falls from a great height...SandwichHeavyInvestorhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11846046255928509002noreply@blogger.comBlogger181125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7562213478601242684.post-78729143079638419442012-02-03T06:54:00.008-06:002012-02-03T07:09:31.423-06:00Stock Top In?<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgZUKTssX8pWLP4J05wZLqVASurf-DemXK4dIE5-uJ734R03MxnZUGmM_OG8nKV50-HLvmZUIP1n-mX4a9mewDGjUNwzugdDMwGTAoKQ1jRIepp1cU0Gnl6HJU8Oz_2OBidnuO_jCNrny7O/s1600/SnP+Bearish+Butterfly.bmp"><img style="float:left; margin:0 10px 10px 0;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 320px; height: 154px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgZUKTssX8pWLP4J05wZLqVASurf-DemXK4dIE5-uJ734R03MxnZUGmM_OG8nKV50-HLvmZUIP1n-mX4a9mewDGjUNwzugdDMwGTAoKQ1jRIepp1cU0Gnl6HJU8Oz_2OBidnuO_jCNrny7O/s320/SnP+Bearish+Butterfly.bmp" border="0" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5704892951063321378" /></a><br /><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjYxbDV0Rh-pRtzNFdLsXoZwFWOAyR43Kwzhh7Z3e9qdIPr8LCEtfgsmMYRW1V-T8VtrPHdUgG0VCUTW9ZMlqDT14VwpcJpFbjqYFtmS9pUEokOVQZ-01oXtZL4HSJt9VDngMF5_yGKZMDV/s1600/Bear+Butterfly+spoo.JPG"></a><div>Please do not take this post as a signal that we are starting up again... I just feel very strongly about it and want there to be a record...<br /><br /><div style="color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; text-align: -webkit-auto; background-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 0.917969); ">The SnP daily chart has come up for a 2nd test of this strong harmonic sell zone and for the last 3 sessions still can't break through to the upside</div><div style="color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; text-align: -webkit-auto; background-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 0.917969); ">This bearish butterfly pattern is completed to near perfection (see attachment)</div><div style="color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; text-align: -webkit-auto; background-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 0.917969); ">The shooting star candle bar, a strong reversal price action indicator, on Jan 26 was also on high relative volume, which is always good. </div><div style="color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; text-align: -webkit-auto; background-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 0.917969); ">(Bill gates sold $450 million worth of MSFT around here too lol)</div><div style="color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; text-align: -webkit-auto; background-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 0.917969); "><br /></div><div style="color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; text-align: -webkit-auto; background-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 0.917969); "><img src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgdSh9povYDjn05Pvg3yir_l29TW1u0gA_8JRhV2JH06BGYXbOvRkV_fusBOK68ztIH8sP14QXXfeFzxCr1fPw1dGz2R56nO0HuJ1a7H0TO09VUOWWPQfCxLjkZO441VQ_evU9bdtmUtVDd/s320/msft.png" border="0" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5704895567231778962" style="text-align: left; cursor: pointer; width: 320px; height: 42px; " /></div><div style="color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; text-align: -webkit-auto; background-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 0.917969); "><br /></div><div style="color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; text-align: -webkit-auto; background-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 0.917969); ">I love the risk reward here selling before NFP with a 10 handle stop</div><div style="color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; text-align: -webkit-auto; background-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 0.917969); ">If I am right, we go to 1300 initially, but 1265 would be my profit target unless I saw real strong support at 1300</div><div style="color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; text-align: -webkit-auto; background-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 0.917969); ">I would love to sell enough that I can take half of it off at 1300 and move my stop to breakeven for the rest</div><div style="color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; text-align: -webkit-auto; background-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 0.917969); "><br /></div><div style="color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; text-align: -webkit-auto; background-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 0.917969); ">I am writing before NFP, but I feel it can only disappoint the market</div></div><div style="color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; text-align: -webkit-auto; background-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 0.917969); "><br /></div><div style="color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; text-align: -webkit-auto; background-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 0.917969); "><br /></div>Dolemitehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12204876199308650559noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7562213478601242684.post-32196050822460123322011-07-31T15:29:00.000-05:002011-07-31T15:29:16.668-05:00Crude Oil (CL) Uptrend held? 7/31<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiqt8nbFZJPudTxGJCG2oklJ_Y3Wg41uN8u4FrvnDNmFverDSBnF78asoGzZyw0BPcuzgyvXKm1ipQrA_8ZasIlViHJyERhQ3IUc9KsEfCS6MTxqoTibbIynF9Tp1qhoSy6xVZE_pgAfiW6/s1600/cl-4hr-073111.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="203" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiqt8nbFZJPudTxGJCG2oklJ_Y3Wg41uN8u4FrvnDNmFverDSBnF78asoGzZyw0BPcuzgyvXKm1ipQrA_8ZasIlViHJyERhQ3IUc9KsEfCS6MTxqoTibbIynF9Tp1qhoSy6xVZE_pgAfiW6/s320/cl-4hr-073111.PNG" width="320" /></a></div>To the left is a 4 hour chart of crude oil. Over the last couple weeks we have been in a pretty slow grinding up trend, with higher highs and higher lows for the most part. After spending more than the average amount of time hovering around 100$ a barrel, we then saw a larger than average sell off. It appears though that we have held the previous low to this point. We can also see divergence with the MACD average in the long term (shown by the purple lines) and the histogram in the short term (shown by the yellow lines). We also saw a lot of volume stepping in when we reached the 50% retracement of this recent uptrend shown in green. I think this is going to be a good spot to buy to try to get back to 100$ a barrel.SandwichHeavyInvestorhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11846046255928509002noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7562213478601242684.post-67380503855621728132011-07-31T15:26:00.000-05:002011-07-31T15:26:02.149-05:00Silver (SI) breaks into retracement channel 7/31<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiyYKg_NN-KB98lBplUcgbCwJw2fSPzQ3xssgPqJ9gQ3D7-r53N5RbBjMIfne3md3qPXor6Xv3ID1rmv1wWXr_q05H1Uo-6gSsNysR-JSqx3MND59468H96aIbXPKp_GxVHVi9f-tIDCv4K/s1600/si-daily-073111.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="204" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiyYKg_NN-KB98lBplUcgbCwJw2fSPzQ3xssgPqJ9gQ3D7-r53N5RbBjMIfne3md3qPXor6Xv3ID1rmv1wWXr_q05H1Uo-6gSsNysR-JSqx3MND59468H96aIbXPKp_GxVHVi9f-tIDCv4K/s320/si-daily-073111.PNG" width="320" /></a></div>Silver's daily chart to the left, and as we can see over the last two weeks we have finally broken past the strong resistance formed right around 39 (shown in purple) by the 38% retracement of the march may meltdown. Now that we have gotten into this retracement channel between 39 and 43, I see it as a high possibility that we bounce here back up to at least 43. I think on a long term outlook, I would be looking to buy anything near 39 to play towards the topside of the channel.SandwichHeavyInvestorhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11846046255928509002noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7562213478601242684.post-84838799035786958722011-07-31T11:56:00.003-05:002011-07-31T12:10:19.447-05:00Gold Look at the Week Ahead 7/31<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiI_Z1H5ukb4RyTEPqW1GM1uKMOg6PWrOhXb7-QYkysHsx2lGE1_pfriNaLT94V4cc_AT36Mo6HdaQyNHbbbfqdFtVyfzvWAnGP0WIIbUKabcFgB2JvaVGXDCffUZ4x-elHS7cDKq8bHkLQ/s1600/Gold+Diverg.png" onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}"><img style="float:left; margin:0 10px 10px 0;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 320px; height: 174px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiI_Z1H5ukb4RyTEPqW1GM1uKMOg6PWrOhXb7-QYkysHsx2lGE1_pfriNaLT94V4cc_AT36Mo6HdaQyNHbbbfqdFtVyfzvWAnGP0WIIbUKabcFgB2JvaVGXDCffUZ4x-elHS7cDKq8bHkLQ/s320/Gold+Diverg.png" border="0" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5635561431249159314" /></a><br /><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiMNtty5JEAF6Lf4Z-1AQN17jYwYGRGDNRNBfEz_7HtHW-xr7cKc-ysglh9IICVCKo0VjEs17Snao9w6mv2VSHtbymcCSEsP7LLUiBXdI1B4T2RfMQu25vogglJZ8NJDYQNBSGdN9zj1UKC/s1600/Gold+Day+Zoom.png" onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}"><img style="float:left; margin:0 10px 10px 0;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 320px; height: 172px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiMNtty5JEAF6Lf4Z-1AQN17jYwYGRGDNRNBfEz_7HtHW-xr7cKc-ysglh9IICVCKo0VjEs17Snao9w6mv2VSHtbymcCSEsP7LLUiBXdI1B4T2RfMQu25vogglJZ8NJDYQNBSGdN9zj1UKC/s320/Gold+Day+Zoom.png" border="0" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5635561423770841410" /></a><br /><div><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjvhXY5UqEzu-C2g90Hh7kAMTY07BMFTNEVkPK8jG60G3dj2pGb_AxWCGLRj_uadtMJyD5moWjgj2Pr3DP8Xqygg3pezd-WyCmz0Is0GCby_IvcHMJGwEvUE5xuFYL-l2FLCmYkXv2rdqgS/s1600/Gold+Day.png" onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}"><img style="float:left; margin:0 10px 10px 0;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 320px; height: 182px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjvhXY5UqEzu-C2g90Hh7kAMTY07BMFTNEVkPK8jG60G3dj2pGb_AxWCGLRj_uadtMJyD5moWjgj2Pr3DP8Xqygg3pezd-WyCmz0Is0GCby_IvcHMJGwEvUE5xuFYL-l2FLCmYkXv2rdqgS/s320/Gold+Day.png" border="0" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5635561408804751810" /></a>(Chart 1 - Gold Daily SStoch, RSI, MACD Divergence)<div>(Chart 2 - Gold Daily Zoom)</div><div>(Chart 3 - Gold Daily)</div><div><br /></div><div>Compare chart 1 to the price action on charts 2 and/or 3.</div><div>See how the momentum indicators in chart 1 make lower highs as gold makes higher highs in price at the same time?</div><div>This is a sign of impending weakness.</div><div>Furthermore with this point, SStoch and RSI are both in traditional "overbought" territory (+80 and +75 respectively).</div><div><br /></div><div>One can also see that gold is governed by 3 bullish channels.<br />We are in the top 1/4 of all 3, which is an additional measure of being overbought</div><div>Furthermore, the latest daily bar has a nice upper wick after stalling at the 1640 resistance</div><div><br /></div><div>Based on all this, I would say gold is a sell here. However, I usually like to have a nice shooting star in the price before I go short. I would sell here if you are aggressive with a 1650ish stop. I would sell a break of 1609 if you are conservative.</div><div><br /></div><div>If this is indeed a top for the moment, then I expect price to fall to 1562.5 initially, and 1480-1500 finally.</div></div>Dolemitehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12204876199308650559noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7562213478601242684.post-84596759650036471482011-07-31T11:30:00.002-05:002011-07-31T11:33:29.201-05:00SNP Look at the Week Ahead 7/31<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiU_grFLZ9gnkPdHy9nb2xMfrDd1MVPO42pwyZdQihMWped2i5Cx_jzzf7iznisi8P3MEv3wOHk7gOK7csD9k2j6PZHU95CZr5-XRJn7rppeejCqGwlbCXL7GD72zPLh16HX675wUoP4Wsl/s1600/EP-Day+SuperZoom.png" onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}"><img style="float:left; margin:0 10px 10px 0;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 320px; height: 150px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiU_grFLZ9gnkPdHy9nb2xMfrDd1MVPO42pwyZdQihMWped2i5Cx_jzzf7iznisi8P3MEv3wOHk7gOK7csD9k2j6PZHU95CZr5-XRJn7rppeejCqGwlbCXL7GD72zPLh16HX675wUoP4Wsl/s320/EP-Day+SuperZoom.png" border="0" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5635554944415983794" /></a><br /><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjU6XIwX9sLqNPT3Jncgb6ZdrPWzgPRIgxs3IZPkaRdvFcHt1aM_CxX8PImJ1dR0G_sJG_iKGHZKprjPI2rD1fOuvnYdi8bPEaLA7LVNo-lmqQlNVep8W0gpnyBTQlAsyJpcbDz_TMMCJoA/s1600/EP-Day+Zoom.png" onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}"><img style="float:left; margin:0 10px 10px 0;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 320px; height: 150px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjU6XIwX9sLqNPT3Jncgb6ZdrPWzgPRIgxs3IZPkaRdvFcHt1aM_CxX8PImJ1dR0G_sJG_iKGHZKprjPI2rD1fOuvnYdi8bPEaLA7LVNo-lmqQlNVep8W0gpnyBTQlAsyJpcbDz_TMMCJoA/s320/EP-Day+Zoom.png" border="0" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5635554933787482706" /></a><br /><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgNjm4CnRY3SFasDSwKdRFh32-vJ5pJ6P50uDX4HgzkNxpvL6AV7LByxrshVp6QiMdCd01p0wutKef8v4CDFUwejVywTpqEDHTshC6z6Pfit9jw7JocygASzyuOy7hOehm3bJfcEdhoHO_v/s1600/EP-Day.png" onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}"><img style="float:left; margin:0 10px 10px 0;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 320px; height: 150px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgNjm4CnRY3SFasDSwKdRFh32-vJ5pJ6P50uDX4HgzkNxpvL6AV7LByxrshVp6QiMdCd01p0wutKef8v4CDFUwejVywTpqEDHTshC6z6Pfit9jw7JocygASzyuOy7hOehm3bJfcEdhoHO_v/s320/EP-Day.png" border="0" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5635554923180951122" /></a><br /><div>(Chart 1 - SNP Daily Extra Zoom)</div><div>(Chart 2 - SNP Daily Zoom)</div><div>(Chart 3 - SNP Daily )</div><div><br /></div><div>Looking at the charts, I see 3 important bullish channels that can be governing current price. Using principles from the VSA bible "Master the Markets" (google it if you have never heard of it), and applying them to any of these channels, we can define the SNP as oversold.</div><div><br /></div><div>This is bullet point number 1. We can further our bullish case by looking at the price action vs. volume on Friday. Although not a true hammer, we had price move well past the 2nd stnd. deviation (red Bollinger Band), and then close inside of it. This happened on far more volume than any of the previous days.</div><div><br /></div><div>Based on this, and assuming this Debt Ceiling crap doesn't throw a giant curve ball in the next few days (which is a big "if" lol), I see this as a buying opportunity for a move up to the 1328 area.</div>Dolemitehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12204876199308650559noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7562213478601242684.post-54995438151379434152011-07-31T11:14:00.002-05:002011-07-31T11:15:42.345-05:00Sorry for the Lapse in CoverageSorry for the absence guys...<div>Sandwich had some personal stuff to take care of and I was busy as hell at work.</div><div>However, we should be back to posting a few things a day going forward.</div><div><br /></div><div>-Dolemite</div>Dolemitehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12204876199308650559noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7562213478601242684.post-61520994477605745192011-07-19T09:32:00.000-05:002011-07-19T09:32:50.394-05:00Dollar Index (DX) Ascending Triangle 7/19<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhjn2AidyJCsXFj9XINsjfnk-81hcMztSu3uhnd4pBV-oSyBiwlr5MAqBbiuILW0pWvwfjpyFQThe1ccqtofK599ym23yOUJSKnOmd8Bijq40QJF6szOMXDaQZNIZiOnLz4biuoyAmp-AO2/s1600/dx-daily-071911.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="200" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhjn2AidyJCsXFj9XINsjfnk-81hcMztSu3uhnd4pBV-oSyBiwlr5MAqBbiuILW0pWvwfjpyFQThe1ccqtofK599ym23yOUJSKnOmd8Bijq40QJF6szOMXDaQZNIZiOnLz4biuoyAmp-AO2/s320/dx-daily-071911.png" width="320" /></a></div>To the left is a daily chart of the Dollar Index (DX). I decided to do a second post to Dolemite's because we get different continuation charts based on the software we use, so sometimes different viewpoints can be seen. After reaching our lows @72.86, we seem to have been forming a strong ascending triangle. Each rally has rejected the lowest fib retracement (shown in purple) of the prior down move and every move down has made a higher low, creating a strong trend line (shown in yellow). Usually these resistance / support areas attract the price and it looks like we might see the dollar get down to the 74.9 area over the next couple days, but in the end I feel this type of formation breaks towards the upside and we will see a dollar rally that can actually break the 38% retracement level around 76.25 and hold it.SandwichHeavyInvestorhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11846046255928509002noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7562213478601242684.post-16577158575475436922011-07-19T09:18:00.001-05:002011-07-19T10:25:17.199-05:00Crude Oil (CL) Target Reached 7/19<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgRZMVtZLT6O3nuAqLh0IZBq0P4_lM1sh_pnY33mXTaQH_1REhn_Z3yh0NsKaqz4gtkFlAA320Vn1YDTuIfwc5knL2In2gXlqAOzhFurLIupfHA4jyN589Lh8dbBRqmxQVeN3H6rpIKaIRA/s1600/cl-hour-071911.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="204" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgRZMVtZLT6O3nuAqLh0IZBq0P4_lM1sh_pnY33mXTaQH_1REhn_Z3yh0NsKaqz4gtkFlAA320Vn1YDTuIfwc5knL2In2gXlqAOzhFurLIupfHA4jyN589Lh8dbBRqmxQVeN3H6rpIKaIRA/s320/cl-hour-071911.png" width="320" /></a></div>Hourly chart of Crude Oil (CL) to the left. <a href="http://deadcatbouncing.blogspot.com/2011/07/crude-oil-cl-lower-end-of-channel.html">In a post yesterday</a> we pointed out we had reached the bottom of a channel and the lower fib retracement from the previous downmove. We also looked to target the upper end of the channel around 98-99 from this buy and this morning we have already reached this area. While ultimately I think the breakout of this channel might be to the upside, I personally will lighten my position here and then wait for any bearish candlestick formation or divergence to form to pull the rest of this position off. If the signal forms inside the channel / retracement area then I might look to reverse my position too.<br />
<br />
<b>EDIT: An hour after this post crude formed a nice shooting star off the top trendline and I have exited my position. I might look to go short soon as well.</b>SandwichHeavyInvestorhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11846046255928509002noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7562213478601242684.post-63023773504282309992011-07-19T06:45:00.002-05:002011-07-19T06:59:53.341-05:00SnP Mini Future Daily Chart 6:45AM 7/19<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi9vztYTNWgmDmgVvIb2un5Kui-_AchfX7ZpjTmIHDh0pHt7gAyxUBneXFn0iKKadL9l7DcY2p3LfOmgRjvYn-xBKj4GyErrYoyUoRD4W5rF3D9zKRKuTjwdbvXkRelZOMpL_nmZBbXoLVm/s1600/snp+day+zoom.png" onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}"><img style="float:left; margin:0 10px 10px 0;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 320px; height: 223px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi9vztYTNWgmDmgVvIb2un5Kui-_AchfX7ZpjTmIHDh0pHt7gAyxUBneXFn0iKKadL9l7DcY2p3LfOmgRjvYn-xBKj4GyErrYoyUoRD4W5rF3D9zKRKuTjwdbvXkRelZOMpL_nmZBbXoLVm/s320/snp+day+zoom.png" border="0" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5631028426193269314" /></a><br /><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEig7JLwdyweoQ_bG5xIUG6Gni75VSWmAg8gPw1Q-9j6AoMiE2m5xi3Zvz_s2FoU8c419sk9qBz_m9chdsfjX2v88m5itZmNCtgjWaFwyxNl5cF6KB7OLFHVinJR_ooMgcWguzLxCYygcuJb/s1600/snp+day.png" onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}"><img style="float:left; margin:0 10px 10px 0;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 320px; height: 223px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEig7JLwdyweoQ_bG5xIUG6Gni75VSWmAg8gPw1Q-9j6AoMiE2m5xi3Zvz_s2FoU8c419sk9qBz_m9chdsfjX2v88m5itZmNCtgjWaFwyxNl5cF6KB7OLFHVinJR_ooMgcWguzLxCYygcuJb/s320/snp+day.png" border="0" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5631028419087622290" /></a>(chart 1 - snp daily chart zoomed)<div>(chart 2 - snp daily chart)</div><div><br /></div><div>OK, here is the SNP 500 september future.</div><div>Price is bracketed between significant support and resistance.</div><div><br /></div><div>We have support at 1295 (62% fib retrace of jun-jul rally and high of june chop/stall zone).</div><div>We have resistance at 1315-1309 (32% retrace of july selloff and prior shallow (32%) retrace of jun-jul rally) (also bottom of MML trading range at 1308.50)</div><div><br /></div><div>I think we will get a close over/under this resistance/support in the next few days.</div><div>If it closes above resistance / below support, I think a 30 point move is feasible. (1345 or 1265)</div><div>I think we get a close over 1308 today and then go higher from here and test 1345</div><div><br /></div><div>In the next few weeks, we may have a downside test of the longterm orange bullish channel (see chart 2 for scope of this channel). This has held for 2.5 years. If it breaks this, then the neckline of the head and shoulders sandwich is so fond of (search recent snp posts if curious) (also on my chart in white) comes into play.</div>Dolemitehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12204876199308650559noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7562213478601242684.post-9276965143377572482011-07-18T13:13:00.003-05:002011-07-18T13:20:22.231-05:00Dollar Index (DX) Analysis 7/18<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgkGL_h69r56XzNFg7Bxl4fQssKadWpMj1JhqruhDIPCdZKSrogZDVHMItwGKVyuGz4VzRexL8PbTnb57gk8Z9pxHHU2E3z8Z9zm47fem1zqoy0G1QJGj_Xw3lCFodHOcSxeJCZMc3R4zl0/s1600/DXY+Day.png" onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}"><img style="float:left; margin:0 10px 10px 0;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 320px; height: 246px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgkGL_h69r56XzNFg7Bxl4fQssKadWpMj1JhqruhDIPCdZKSrogZDVHMItwGKVyuGz4VzRexL8PbTnb57gk8Z9pxHHU2E3z8Z9zm47fem1zqoy0G1QJGj_Xw3lCFodHOcSxeJCZMc3R4zl0/s320/DXY+Day.png" border="0" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5630757835038803474" /></a>(Chart 1 - Dollar Index Daily)<div><br /></div><div>Globally, the USD is in an uptrend (orange channel). However, we are right in the middle right now.</div><div><br /></div><div>75.75-76.00 is strong resistance.</div><div>We got above it last night/this morning, but are now almost back under it (currently 75.80)</div><div><br /></div><div>If we close here or a bit lower, I think we retest 75 or possibly even 74.50. Long term I am a dollar bull as eventually I think we will test the highs of this orange channel... However with the recent price action, I think we get another 75 test before we break out to new recent highs.</div>Dolemitehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12204876199308650559noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7562213478601242684.post-45966475382922479492011-07-18T13:09:00.000-05:002011-07-18T13:09:14.582-05:00EUR/USD Approaching key resistance 7/18<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgOzm_mAw5VBqUePVQht9q5souPIc3mz4MNFkbjqxgftLH8pT5UNwJTw4470Zg5tgyl98KoGA086wwm9b0DcHu8EH96FocloQz1Uz7tiiIh6ghW8cjiZJYoRLHc08Z24FCMQdQePc4T9wod/s1600/eurusd-hour-071811.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="204" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgOzm_mAw5VBqUePVQht9q5souPIc3mz4MNFkbjqxgftLH8pT5UNwJTw4470Zg5tgyl98KoGA086wwm9b0DcHu8EH96FocloQz1Uz7tiiIh6ghW8cjiZJYoRLHc08Z24FCMQdQePc4T9wod/s320/eurusd-hour-071811.png" width="320" /></a></div>To the left is the hourly chart of the EUR/USD pair. A while ago <a href="http://deadcatbouncing.blogspot.com/2011/07/eurusd-triangle-78.html">I posted about the triangle it was forming </a>and while I thought we might get one more bounce before breaking to the downside, it appears it chose to just break it and kickstart a downtrend. We saw a nice retracement in the middle of last week to just break back in and then out of the previous triangle (shown in purple) and also hold the deep retracement at 1.43 (shown in yellow). We now have pulled back out of the yellow retracement but are looking to head back to the lower level. We also see this 38% level corresponds almost exactly with the 61.8% level of the most recent up moves retracement @1.4115-1.412. This level seems like it will be key to ensuring this downtrend continues, and any good divergence or candlestick formation off this level should be a good selling opportunity.SandwichHeavyInvestorhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11846046255928509002noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7562213478601242684.post-72105944063119795132011-07-18T13:03:00.000-05:002011-07-18T13:03:35.260-05:00S&P (ES) Breaks 1 support, 1 to go 7/18<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiwi8EzwmebRkYrQLZBV-Vm6iXGzi_qFZugCZx4OqINNh9U02IXkBMvSXD2EZGUVDgW3lm3elFu068wjbZN7i78jbp0bQmJKTP_HE5oZWGwyNN1z5vOY2nxKipJfK3KzGewMKNoy8rGdFyt/s1600/es-hour-071811.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="205" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiwi8EzwmebRkYrQLZBV-Vm6iXGzi_qFZugCZx4OqINNh9U02IXkBMvSXD2EZGUVDgW3lm3elFu068wjbZN7i78jbp0bQmJKTP_HE5oZWGwyNN1z5vOY2nxKipJfK3KzGewMKNoy8rGdFyt/s320/es-hour-071811.png" width="320" /></a></div>To the left is the hourly chart of the s&p. This morning it looks like we have finally broken the 1300-1303 level which had been providing a major support (except the brief break last week).<a href="http://deadcatbouncing.blogspot.com/2011/07/s-es-head-and-shoulders-75.html"> I posted a couple weeks ago that I thought a nice head and shoulder formation</a> on the weekly chart was in progress and have been short since then. So far so good, but it will be important to see how the S&P reacts to breaking this support and see if it can hold when it gets retested from below. We can also see we held the deep retracement at 1291 shown in red, and will need to eventually break this last retracement and previous high peak in order for this to continue to our eventual neckline around 1255-1260.SandwichHeavyInvestorhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11846046255928509002noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7562213478601242684.post-4817347927646528612011-07-18T12:54:00.000-05:002011-07-18T12:54:15.445-05:00Crude Oil (CL) Lower end of channel<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiG9e4hIqIMijuU191ZjpQKO-dH2TGwGGjpqTQBGcACF2LwCvdW_s7rYWHnJLjRG1RtHqDG4UaQCzqpb5b7ZRWs9R1F0O6RtFEp2KidsUOVaT018r8PpJf6pDhUbbGRy2-5MhBlp2cCjomx/s1600/cl-4hr-071811.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="204" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiG9e4hIqIMijuU191ZjpQKO-dH2TGwGGjpqTQBGcACF2LwCvdW_s7rYWHnJLjRG1RtHqDG4UaQCzqpb5b7ZRWs9R1F0O6RtFEp2KidsUOVaT018r8PpJf6pDhUbbGRy2-5MhBlp2cCjomx/s320/cl-4hr-071811.png" width="320" /></a></div>To the left is a 4 hour chart of crude oil. As you can see, we have been in a little bit of a channel for the last week or two (shown by the yellow trendlines on chart). It seems like currenlty we are at the lower end of this channel, which also lines up with the 38% retracement of the prior down move (shown in green). We also see a little bit of divergence between the two recent low peaks as we dont quite take out the previous low and our MACD has gone further than the previous down peak. It also looks like we are somewhat holding these green retracements, so I would look to take off at least half of this position at the 61.8% or about 98$ range.SandwichHeavyInvestorhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11846046255928509002noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7562213478601242684.post-91000223137932027282011-07-18T08:06:00.003-05:002011-07-18T08:15:19.604-05:00Daily and Weekly Gold Chart Analysis 7/18<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgEDbpgn-hK1b-0n6yeBfPqOLlKP-CyWmpVY-D88h0vkejxdEOBCuFcvlICUHSv5ZGDQhLl_q0VuQIG1aNVCZlTp8PEcW9BfOyAg7JL6iEITaC5cWZ8b-BhpS_6Lolrd6RJVqZXcO6WdQeY/s1600/Gold+Day.png" onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}"><img style="float:left; margin:0 10px 10px 0;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 320px; height: 126px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgEDbpgn-hK1b-0n6yeBfPqOLlKP-CyWmpVY-D88h0vkejxdEOBCuFcvlICUHSv5ZGDQhLl_q0VuQIG1aNVCZlTp8PEcW9BfOyAg7JL6iEITaC5cWZ8b-BhpS_6Lolrd6RJVqZXcO6WdQeY/s320/Gold+Day.png" border="0" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5630678430243709202" /></a><br /><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEig4-kFRRmIr7QT7bz-AUnwWxDOm1PCneJUMb0JWrP0mhDitH4FHIXJdkgMzR3SlmdzAQohssNsa2cRH5tzNeLOAp20sZ5rBXW364jyD-6qirX6YOdSVj2231oen1TIAzWtWwqPKepewMeE/s1600/Gold+Week.png" onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}"><img style="float:left; margin:0 10px 10px 0;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 320px; height: 124px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEig4-kFRRmIr7QT7bz-AUnwWxDOm1PCneJUMb0JWrP0mhDitH4FHIXJdkgMzR3SlmdzAQohssNsa2cRH5tzNeLOAp20sZ5rBXW364jyD-6qirX6YOdSVj2231oen1TIAzWtWwqPKepewMeE/s320/Gold+Week.png" border="0" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5630678425018669858" /></a>(Chart 1 - Gold Daily)<div>(Chart 2 - Gold Weekly)</div><div><br /></div><div>1600 has fallen, like so many psychological resistances of the past in gold. </div><div>We are currently trading 1601.</div><div><br /></div><div>Here is my "intelligent" commentary:</div><div><br /></div><div>The orange daily/weekly uptrend is very well defined.</div><div>We are at the upper 1/4 of it currently (high is 1629 today)<br />Gold faces significant resistance at 1620-1640.</div><div>Although I think it is still very bullish, it doesn't present trading value as a buy for me.</div><div>1620-1640 can be sold if hit today or tomorrow, but i would use low leverage/risk if at all.</div><div><br /></div><div>Regardless if you look to enter a sell, or a pullback buy, wait for 60 min candle confirmation before entering a trade!!!</div><div><br /></div>Dolemitehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12204876199308650559noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7562213478601242684.post-76960129838897581592011-07-18T07:45:00.005-05:002011-07-18T07:59:14.213-05:00Daily and Weekly Silver Chart Analysis 7/18<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiCb-LivAQCiACTiUKWsVYyP11cwuBXk8JeJ9Lg7yeGk806SrcwxXDc4MAebbj2SDvZPBjr6C60ErqIVs6UeHFWSSQfmalzYLBUp4ENXodU5AFP9WIoWZgnPJEz6QHIQDpqo5fVyxT8qrkQ/s1600/Silver+Day.png" onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}"><img style="float:left; margin:0 10px 10px 0;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 320px; height: 126px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiCb-LivAQCiACTiUKWsVYyP11cwuBXk8JeJ9Lg7yeGk806SrcwxXDc4MAebbj2SDvZPBjr6C60ErqIVs6UeHFWSSQfmalzYLBUp4ENXodU5AFP9WIoWZgnPJEz6QHIQDpqo5fVyxT8qrkQ/s320/Silver+Day.png" border="0" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5630673804377603858" /></a><br /><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjBmQhuQCM0mDQpW1XmKAY5-YmDhsxs5XJN90JSX3cd5gOpztYZ7DmkJlw8MhjKfhu62WxVtEqf4Zua4wcm55n0mCfrTwy8qxXX_NkFxwU4ao0Tiu5FHqUPJe0MdMqQuffMaFqMly89yjWK/s1600/Silver+Week.png" onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}"><img style="float:left; margin:0 10px 10px 0;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 320px; height: 124px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjBmQhuQCM0mDQpW1XmKAY5-YmDhsxs5XJN90JSX3cd5gOpztYZ7DmkJlw8MhjKfhu62WxVtEqf4Zua4wcm55n0mCfrTwy8qxXX_NkFxwU4ao0Tiu5FHqUPJe0MdMqQuffMaFqMly89yjWK/s320/Silver+Week.png" border="0" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5630673796118136786" /></a><br /><div>(Chart 1 - Daily Silver)</div><div>(Chart 2 - Weekly Silver)</div><div><br /></div>Silver has shown tremendous strength as of late.<div>The daily chart is starting to look parabolic again.<div>I expect some selling to occur if we get higher, into the 42-44 area. </div><div>However, as strong as this rally looks, we could rip right past it.</div></div><div><br /></div><div>From a trading standpoint:<br />I feel good about buying dips into the 38 area. I would target 42 initially, but would keep some on for 43.75, or 45.30 if you are feeling lucky ;)</div><div><br />Much less confidently, I would also look to sell the 42-43.5 area if we hit it in the next 2 days.</div><div><br /></div><div>For both of these though, I would first look for 60 min candle confirmations, (hammers/shooting star or engulfing patterns) before entering a position. </div><div><br /></div>Dolemitehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12204876199308650559noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7562213478601242684.post-24006401921622806182011-07-14T16:25:00.000-05:002011-07-14T16:25:54.824-05:00USDCHF **REQUEST** 7/14<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhBrgdrPBjs-bKt0JTi4S55cYcggXoSfD_SJB-jw9JSZ-v8AJ8qg0ko7HabzJh7Y8_u77OvWQ6GwnC3m-J2A1lLtrK66LM5i1UWkJyFaCxrY5c06Xbfa5Ltq1GHk9vh6Af1inTn5iyYbjwz/s1600/usdchf-daily-071411.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="206" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhBrgdrPBjs-bKt0JTi4S55cYcggXoSfD_SJB-jw9JSZ-v8AJ8qg0ko7HabzJh7Y8_u77OvWQ6GwnC3m-J2A1lLtrK66LM5i1UWkJyFaCxrY5c06Xbfa5Ltq1GHk9vh6Af1inTn5iyYbjwz/s320/usdchf-daily-071411.png" width="320" /></a></div>The USD/CHF daily chart to our left by request. This pair has been in a very well formed downtrend for quite a while. So the chart on the left at first glance is confusing but I will try to clear it up, I wanted to show how well formed this trend has been. The light blue retracement starts us out as this downtrend starts in early-mid Feb. After selling off to .9 we retrace almost exactly to the 50% level (shown in light blue). Drawing an extension of that move off of the 50% retrace, our next move lands between the 78% and 100% extension levels. We then retrace exactly 50% of this down move (shown in purple). Drawing an extension off this retracement level, we see that we land almost exactly on the 78% extension. After that we pull back almost exactly to the 38.2% retracement (shown in yellow). We go sideways for just a while which was a little unusual but finally break new lows just a couple days ago. With all this being said, I could see this most recent hammer off nearly the 78% level being a reasonable entry spot. On the other hand if the hammer is not confirmed, I would look for a signal between the 78% and 100% extensions, right around the .80 psychological level. I would think a signal there would produce a retracement of at least 38% or maybe more as it seems this trend is compressing slowly.SandwichHeavyInvestorhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11846046255928509002noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7562213478601242684.post-66490205648762473002011-07-14T16:08:00.000-05:002011-07-14T16:08:18.357-05:00GBPNZD **REQUEST** 7/14<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh7FwT0b5G6ae16sQVRwzReq8xGhAp5uhFISBH23Vqu3ubAjGmnMv-kMe2wucXW-JTw5WvxlGoD4GU-pWT1WhQl4o_EB_NjeiGP29gvmDtt6BbbTa9AFzZ1Kh9yqDV9MX0OXc0pA_8Mzgv9/s1600/gbpnzd-daily-071411.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="202" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh7FwT0b5G6ae16sQVRwzReq8xGhAp5uhFISBH23Vqu3ubAjGmnMv-kMe2wucXW-JTw5WvxlGoD4GU-pWT1WhQl4o_EB_NjeiGP29gvmDtt6BbbTa9AFzZ1Kh9yqDV9MX0OXc0pA_8Mzgv9/s320/gbpnzd-daily-071411.png" width="320" /></a></div>By request I have the GBP/NZD daily chart to our left. We are currently breaking new all time lows as it goes and I dont see a whole lot of support anywhere. I've drawn a fib extension from the last time there was any momentum upwards, and we are close to approaching the 100% extension. This also is very close to a psychological support level at 1.9000. This whole down trend since early May has been done with the MACD sloping generally upward creating some divergence (outlined in green). It looks like it is just slowly drifting off with no where to settle or bounce off. We seemed to have formed a nice hammer today and possibly this is a sign we might get a retrace, but I would wait for it to validate by breaking the highs of the hammer.SandwichHeavyInvestorhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11846046255928509002noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7562213478601242684.post-54795638921131150512011-07-13T10:14:00.000-05:002011-07-13T10:14:19.556-05:00Deere & Co (DE) **REQUEST** 7/13<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgWRvZzRjQDhfe5DLx_gjJH1B0f5OSwN8rnYmMIlk3cZeeSeot5tUnUtra_Hf_eSCoiMkOYNfNrdgRFZaBlscYN55p1Odu8UQaMAs7LMUP1GRHt4k9k1ZYyVt-yPKy_4aX2e_BvfhRmZQja/s1600/de-hour-071311.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="195" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgWRvZzRjQDhfe5DLx_gjJH1B0f5OSwN8rnYmMIlk3cZeeSeot5tUnUtra_Hf_eSCoiMkOYNfNrdgRFZaBlscYN55p1Odu8UQaMAs7LMUP1GRHt4k9k1ZYyVt-yPKy_4aX2e_BvfhRmZQja/s320/de-hour-071311.png" width="320" /></a></div>By request, here is the daily chart of the deere company (DE) to the left. Right now it looks like it is in the 1st-2nd SD area of its regression channel (shown in green) of the most recent down move from its highs. It also held its first retracement (@86.5ish, shown in yellow) quite well recently and that is always something you want to see in a healthy trend. I think that we should expect to see a reaction at the second standard deviation green line if we are to continue lower, and would especially want to see us get below the 1st deviation soon. I think ultimately at this point its a sell, but it would be invalidated if it closes above the 2nd SD / first retracement lines.SandwichHeavyInvestorhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11846046255928509002noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7562213478601242684.post-15955857809456607112011-07-12T12:46:00.003-05:002011-07-12T12:52:05.569-05:00EURUSD at Good Spot to Sell? 12:45 PM CST 7/12<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhoDs7U3SqPqQFdzvuRMQRuaKXlBq2E1LANDXGmX6bZw5W8pILtOV5_-YRmXM9wM_vmtQHstjB4dj2exPPdBHNYQjW62Uott20M40NcdKMfgFkvU2lQt6Q9I33fcKoPob-QIFY7p2nINn4h/s1600/EURO+60+min.png" onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}"><img style="float:left; margin:0 10px 10px 0;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 320px; height: 303px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhoDs7U3SqPqQFdzvuRMQRuaKXlBq2E1LANDXGmX6bZw5W8pILtOV5_-YRmXM9wM_vmtQHstjB4dj2exPPdBHNYQjW62Uott20M40NcdKMfgFkvU2lQt6Q9I33fcKoPob-QIFY7p2nINn4h/s320/EURO+60+min.png" border="0" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5628523857921424450" /></a>Here is a 60 min chart of the EURUSD future<div><br /></div><div>Opened the week at 1.42, sold as low as 1.38 at night, now we are back at 1.40. You don't have to be a rocket scientist to figure out that it has retraced 50% of its move at this point. Combine that with some resistance just above 1.40, and further combine that with some high wick low body candles indicating selling in this area, and you have a compelling case to sell.</div><div><br /></div><div>I sold 1.40 with a 1.41 stop.<br />My conservative target is 1.3775</div><div>Aggressive target is 1.3625</div>Dolemitehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12204876199308650559noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7562213478601242684.post-70268578637539280012011-07-12T10:07:00.001-05:002011-07-12T10:24:01.141-05:00S&P (ES) Retracing 7/12<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiDCzRk-SIRdzmDAHchY4oUj0ZXRInTcg5vwEaDXtOTok-hB7AOxe4DyLOOgAtSj7S1h3raCNWQVkIRQMUfhfECd06hubXXMShwqoZURQrm_1xUUkk7mN_9k-_csgrQX24A6318qLFYoYn1/s1600/es-hour-071211.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="184" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiDCzRk-SIRdzmDAHchY4oUj0ZXRInTcg5vwEaDXtOTok-hB7AOxe4DyLOOgAtSj7S1h3raCNWQVkIRQMUfhfECd06hubXXMShwqoZURQrm_1xUUkk7mN_9k-_csgrQX24A6318qLFYoYn1/s320/es-hour-071211.png" width="320" /></a></div><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiOTBTMXVJWz7tOQxBZSZvoXKnDumSwXCG8r_Pes1yNOXrUy28MM9Nb-7GLxrW1zDx5k-ocw93wtXVwBbI81picudiqY4wV8LE785c4oC-bq1cJw3S-C9WpXh4mjZtDczfHGW4MQYM51Q6w/s1600/es-weekly-071211.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="188" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiOTBTMXVJWz7tOQxBZSZvoXKnDumSwXCG8r_Pes1yNOXrUy28MM9Nb-7GLxrW1zDx5k-ocw93wtXVwBbI81picudiqY4wV8LE785c4oC-bq1cJw3S-C9WpXh4mjZtDczfHGW4MQYM51Q6w/s320/es-weekly-071211.png" width="320" /></a> To the left is the hourly chart of the S&P futures and below is the weekly chart. In the hourly we can see that we broke the key level of 1300 overnight only to spring back. It looks like we are in the middle of a retracement that might be stalling out here as we hit the first level. There has been a healthy pullback in the MACD histogram as well and while there is no real indication this level will hold, I think that we will see this head lower in the next day or so. The second chart is more of an update on a <a href="http://deadcatbouncing.blogspot.com/2011/07/s-es-head-and-shoulders-75.html">post earlier about a potential head and shoulders setup for ES on the weekly chart</a>. Last week finished well for this setup and this week has started out with a bang as yesterday saw quite the sell off. I think more and more we are confirming this setup and the next test will be at the neckline around 1255 level.SandwichHeavyInvestorhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11846046255928509002noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7562213478601242684.post-28119291967648391602011-07-12T09:25:00.007-05:002011-07-12T10:27:11.013-05:00Good Entry to Sell WTI Crude? 9:25 AM CST 7/12<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgX39SFrM7e56iCFjmhuMyfwCQWifLWvhkLwi8z0OB3LE5VnG319cmASgi-CDL21ddScsucwCkEEL2rMrLvb3d3viDwxm-Ywu5dRkQu4F_2w5PzL81bqI2LVK7fTZqjToDgM8j0A_6oURmV/s1600/Crude+15+min.png" onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}"><img style="float:left; margin:0 10px 10px 0;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 320px; height: 245px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgX39SFrM7e56iCFjmhuMyfwCQWifLWvhkLwi8z0OB3LE5VnG319cmASgi-CDL21ddScsucwCkEEL2rMrLvb3d3viDwxm-Ywu5dRkQu4F_2w5PzL81bqI2LVK7fTZqjToDgM8j0A_6oURmV/s320/Crude+15+min.png" border="0" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5628472236049796450" /></a>Here we have a 15 minute crude chart.<div><br /><div>Crude is back at its 95 resistance.<div>The last 15 min bar was a strong shooting star right off of the resistance.</div><div><br /></div><div>We also have hidden divergence with the MACD and price (see the white sloping line on MACD and price) which is confirming this peak might be a peak.</div><div><br /></div><div>Further confirmation is the relatively high volume that bar had as well.</div><div><br /></div><div>I sell here (95) stop at 96 and target 92.25</div></div></div><div><br /></div><div><b>EDIT: Stopped out for .2% of account lost. Will stay on the crude sidelines for now</b></div>Dolemitehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12204876199308650559noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7562213478601242684.post-84602599267840169332011-07-12T06:49:00.006-05:002011-07-12T13:09:57.312-05:00Gold Triple Top with Strong MACD Divergence. Sell? 6:55 AM CST 7/12<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjGW0kDITWUrxMLuwniwHQ5Uf0wpQxTSvVtsFSQ6_Wa5icri0ZV9R12LHomoJX3L0VpxRcDH7SMABqDnsiDsjjPuO4Xv8atL5dMimKtKToTRwgNsGQ45qEfKPVonhcEF9h6YCL2fVp6m3fP/s1600/GOLD+DAILY.png" onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}"><img style="float:left; margin:0 10px 10px 0;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 320px; height: 243px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjGW0kDITWUrxMLuwniwHQ5Uf0wpQxTSvVtsFSQ6_Wa5icri0ZV9R12LHomoJX3L0VpxRcDH7SMABqDnsiDsjjPuO4Xv8atL5dMimKtKToTRwgNsGQ45qEfKPVonhcEF9h6YCL2fVp6m3fP/s320/GOLD+DAILY.png" border="0" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5628433651932538946" /></a>Gold looking very toppy right now as the USD continues its tear to the upside.<div><br /></div><div>Since Jun 6th, Gold has formed 3 separate shooting star reversals at the highs of the range (1550-1560). Each of those peaks have been confirmed with a lower and lower MACD value each time (see downsloping white line on MACD).</div><div><br /></div><div>Couple a triple top, with strong MACD divergence, and thrown in that it is at the top portion of the channel it is in (light blue), and gold smells like a good risk reward for a sell here.</div><div><br /></div><div>I sell here (1550) with a stop of 1565 and a target of 1505 (45:15 aka 3:1 reward:risk)</div><div><br /></div><div><b>EDIT Stopped out</b></div>Dolemitehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12204876199308650559noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7562213478601242684.post-33002258914787826802011-07-08T13:37:00.000-05:002011-07-08T13:37:40.778-05:00Silver (SI) Selling Opportunity 7/8<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiyqkLuMS6eSOGV1rWEBSd6H4U6r1V_eG8xpKQZ39xI0uClxdKyFQSq5MXIRtOKFzlI-q8A-9S89l_lV2O8ketD08zvAi4uMcNjl4ujYd3K-nDACsfWvDhm0y3YrQZPNzGtAqkvRVV7XpFj/s1600/si-hour-070811.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="185" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiyqkLuMS6eSOGV1rWEBSd6H4U6r1V_eG8xpKQZ39xI0uClxdKyFQSq5MXIRtOKFzlI-q8A-9S89l_lV2O8ketD08zvAi4uMcNjl4ujYd3K-nDACsfWvDhm0y3YrQZPNzGtAqkvRVV7XpFj/s320/si-hour-070811.png" width="320" /></a></div>After getting long silver<a href="http://deadcatbouncing.blogspot.com/2011/07/precious-metal-long-opportunity-71.html"> (mentioned in a previous post)</a> from nearly the lows of this recent move, I think it might be time to get out or reverse positions. To the left is the hourly chart of silver, and while you cannot see where the yellow fib retrace is drawn from, its from the highs in late May around 38.845 to our recent lows around 33.405. As you can see this level coincides with a peak already formed on 6/22 and today we just pierced this deep retracement again before bouncing off. We have also been forming quite a bit of divergence (shown in green) over the last 3+ days. This divergence is also apparent in the 4 hour chart and I think its a good indication this run up is about to die and as silver can do, we might be heading for a steep fall soon.SandwichHeavyInvestorhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11846046255928509002noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7562213478601242684.post-76534078931311683902011-07-08T12:36:00.000-05:002011-07-08T12:36:06.672-05:00EUR/USD Triangle 7/8<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgEGGhLC35cqcjS5ACSEkPTcftPdTbFtt9bddXCt6qybt3hwshRL4UrRORhNxTBTyHdNhyJRbNZWdx8q_ge0iVy8ZZ9ivcS0QhfOhc8VVMkpU5q43mGXXgsburv5rdCWNv6AISGNlKJQrsb/s1600/eurusd-4hr-070811.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="202" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgEGGhLC35cqcjS5ACSEkPTcftPdTbFtt9bddXCt6qybt3hwshRL4UrRORhNxTBTyHdNhyJRbNZWdx8q_ge0iVy8ZZ9ivcS0QhfOhc8VVMkpU5q43mGXXgsburv5rdCWNv6AISGNlKJQrsb/s320/eurusd-4hr-070811.png" width="320" /></a></div>The euro 4 hour chart to the left, and it looks like over the last two months we have been forming a slightly descending triangle (shown in purple). Over the last few sessions we've been forming divergence with the MACD histogram as price has gone lower today with the histogram way up from a few days ago. With the triangle sloping down I would usually see this as a eventual breakout downward, but seeing as we are at support and have divergence I would possibly make a long play to try to get up to the 1.44-1.45 level before eventually looking for a signal to go short.SandwichHeavyInvestorhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11846046255928509002noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7562213478601242684.post-56422859839522291702011-07-07T09:35:00.000-05:002011-07-07T09:35:40.249-05:00Natural Gas ETF (UNG) Channel Break **REQUEST** 7/7<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhBq87RinCoDT5Su_pgMlSUBFzur4CMcSVMVMaMjaTwAJqOI3UXvRNDxhQRDDNdva7AG9KWcKby2y60A0pmWD7L3I1T_5NSnD4Z69UBgyFgsRU9b1LQXU4FzWImiEF1YZPaB8saJ6hN8hvA/s1600/ung-daily-070711.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="203" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhBq87RinCoDT5Su_pgMlSUBFzur4CMcSVMVMaMjaTwAJqOI3UXvRNDxhQRDDNdva7AG9KWcKby2y60A0pmWD7L3I1T_5NSnD4Z69UBgyFgsRU9b1LQXU4FzWImiEF1YZPaB8saJ6hN8hvA/s320/ung-daily-070711.png" width="320" /></a></div>To the left is a daily chart of UNG, a natural gas bullish ETF. We can see that back in the late part of last year and early part of this year we were forming a bullish channel (in yellow) that eventually broke hard to the downside. After making some new lows it started back up into a bullish channel (in green), but this time a little less dramatic of an angle on the channel. I think I might of missed the boat on this trade as it seems to have already broken out, but still might not be a bad trade if there is any pullback to get in.SandwichHeavyInvestorhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11846046255928509002noreply@blogger.com2