Thursday, June 16, 2011

Gold Hanging in There, But 1540 Should be Strong Resistance. 7:50PM CST 6/16

(Chart 1 - Daily Gold)

I thought once we got under 1524 we would stay under it. This wasn't the case, and I lightened up my gold shorts.

I am now seeing gold trapped in this macro pennant bounded by the upper magenta line and lower light blue line.

1543 is strong resistance (weak 7/8 MML line).
The top of the pennant is near here as well at this time.
I think any thrusts into 1540-1545 can be sold for a move down to 1523 and eventually to 1504

EUR/USD Pulling back for another sell 6/16

The euro hourly chart to our left, we can see as like most markets today, it didnt do much. What it has done though is pull back to nearly the first retracement shown in purple (@1.4235) and along with that we get a real good sized pullback in the MACD indicator, almost to the level of where it was at the beginning of this recent sell off. While not really continuation divergence, I like seeing the MACD pull back a much higher percentage of the recent swing high than price does. I'd look to sell this around this level or if we pull back any further if you're patient.

Crude Oil (CL) Slow Day 6/16

A chart of the hourly crude oil shown to the left, you can see a zoom up of todays action (if you can call it that). The purple and green lines can be seen in my post from yesterday and what they are. Basically we stayed below the purple line which had provided support for the last few weeks of range trading and above the green line which is the 50% projection of the potential down move. We really saw nothing today, a few attempts to go both ways but nothing interesting and we dont think it can stay in this tiny of a range too much longer, expect a breakout one way or the other.

SnP Chart 1270-1280 Should be Sellable Levels. 6:51 PM CST 6/16

(Chart 1 - Daily SnP Zoom)
(Chart 2 - Daily SnP)

The number 1 thing I am looking at is the bottom line of the magenta bearish channel we broke out of towards the beginning of June. As long as we stay below it, I am a bear. Sure there will be bounces, but you will use those to sell into now.

1269.5 is minor resistance. I am going to fade into a short position there, but save bullets for:

1279.5 is very important resistance. It is also right about where this line I talked about earlier is currently in space. If we get at or just above this line, I look to reshort for a move down to 1250.

Should we get down there I will take a good chunk off, as we could bounce to the magenta down trend line again. Eventually, I see us cracking 1250 for an initial test of 1230.5. From there any bounce to 1250 can be sold with pretty solid confidence. (but I am getting ahead of the market haha)