Thursday, June 2, 2011


Risk on... risk off... risk on... risk off....

Greece worked out a deal??!?!
RISK ON!!!!!!!! Start kicking that can!!
(gold, stocks, euro, oil all jump a bit on the news.....)

... Hopefully tomorrow's NFP forces the market to make up it's collective risk off risk on mind...

EDIT: or they didn't work one out so risk off? who knows...

Ive made my bets. Short financials, semis, gold, and WTI crude(long faz, soxs, gll, and dto going into NFP tomorrow)

Can we get a sub 100k print tmrw in jobs?
This rat soup eatin mofo sure hopes so ;)

Silver to Have Significant Downside Correction? 10:50 AM CST 6/2

(Chart 1 - Silver Daily Zoom)
(Chart 2 - Silver Daily)

3750 is now the ultimate line in the sand resistance.
3594 was short term support
We are under that now (3584)

Short term support is the low of the blue bullish up channel (currently at 3550)

I see us getting through that in the next few days and testing 3440

If we bounce off of 3440, rallies into the 35-36 area can be sold for a move down to 3280.

Should we get though 3280, we are going to 2970

Long term I like buying physical silver as a hedge on my savings account (yes I'm one of "those"). However, I think it will correct to under 30 in the next few weeks - months and present a favorable entry point before another leg up.

Basically right now, I bet we see 30 before we see 38 (at 36, currently a 3:1 bet), but we will need to get under this blue bullish channel.

Dont sell here if you are conservative
Just keep this in mind for if it breaks lower then comes back up to the blue channel line

If you are aggressive and want to sell upside tests of 36 right here for an eventual break of that blue line, then be my guest ;)

Crude Oil (CL) / Natural Gas (NG) Update 6/2

On the left is an hourly chart of Crude Oil (CL) and the right is a daily chart of Natural Gas (NG). It looks like after a very bearish build in oil, we have seen a continuation of yesterdays sell off, and have broken through 100 and are headed to the lowest end of the up moves retracement (in purple, @98.21). I think this will eventually break through here and end up near recent lows @96. Natural gas, I had posted the other day that the yellow trend line might give resistance and the long position suggested should probably be taken off. It looks like after a bullish build in inventory, that we have gone right through this resistance and might be looking to break out to the upside.

Short Term Top in Gold? 10:10AM CST 6/2

(Chart 1 - Gold Daily Zoom)
(Chart 2 - Gold Daily)

Bought GLL (short gold etf) at 23.25

As I said here, I had liked buying gold for a move to 1560 a few days ago.
We got just over 1550 yesterday. Perhaps 1560 was ambitious.

I puke these shorts at 1552.
Will take most of it off for a profit when Gold hits 1502.
Will leave a piece on for a run to 1475 as well.

If this goes though, it could easily get to 1407 or even as low as 1347 (though that is a bit of a long shot, barring a verrrrrry deflationary jobs number tomorrow)