Friday, July 8, 2011

Silver (SI) Selling Opportunity 7/8

After getting long silver (mentioned in a previous post) from nearly the lows of this recent move, I think it might be time to get out or reverse positions. To the left is the hourly chart of silver, and while you cannot see where the yellow fib retrace is drawn from, its from the highs in late May around 38.845 to our recent lows around 33.405. As you can see this level coincides with a peak already formed on 6/22 and today we just pierced this deep retracement again before bouncing off. We have also been forming quite a bit of divergence (shown in green) over the last 3+ days. This divergence is also apparent in the 4 hour chart and I think its a good indication this run up is about to die and as silver can do, we might be heading for a steep fall soon.

EUR/USD Triangle 7/8

The euro 4 hour chart to the left, and it looks like over the last two months we have been forming a slightly descending triangle (shown in purple). Over the last few sessions we've been forming divergence with the MACD histogram as price has gone lower today with the histogram way up from a few days ago. With the triangle sloping down I would usually see this as a eventual breakout downward, but seeing as we are at support and have divergence I would possibly make a long play to try to get up to the 1.44-1.45 level before eventually looking for a signal to go short.