Tuesday, June 14, 2011

EUR/USD Divergence before Bernanke 6/14

I posted yesterday about a possible continuation divergence forming in the EUR/USD pair along with a shooting star, and while it went down momentarily, it has rallied hard overnight and today. I see some divergence lining up from the MACD as we rally all day and think it might be another chance to sell or fade an earlier position. I'll state that this is not a trade for the faint of heart as we could easily see a big move either way with Bernanke set to blab in about 30 minutes.

Snp, Gold, Oil, Silver, All at Key Resistance 9:20 AM CST 6/14

Quick update

Snp september future currently 1281
WTI currently 98.15
August gold currently 1523
July silver currently 35.19

All of these are either just under/over or at very important resistance.
I resold all of them.
Any real move higher from here and I will have some serious thoughts about staying short.

SNP Finishing a Dead Cat Bounce. 1279 Key Resistance. 7:16 AM CST 6/14

(Chart 1 - Snp September future 30 min chart)
(Chart 2 - Snp September future daily chart)

The SnP broke out of its daily bearish channel (magenta) Jun 6th.
Now the bottom of that is important resistance, and personally I don't see us closing back in it.
1279.25 is also very very important. Look at the 30 min chart with the tall upside wicks on the recent candles that are near this area. This shows others are selling here too.

If we run up into 1277-1280, I like the sale for a move down to 1250.

Gold to Continue Lower. 1524 Now Key Resistance. 7:02AM CST 6/14

(Chart 1 - Gold 60 min zoom)
(Chart 2 - Gold 60 min)
(Chart 3 - Gold daily)

Feels good to be right (especially to the day!)
Hope anyone who reads along shorted with me.
Enough gloating... on to the charts:

We are now under the midpoint of the daily bullish channel (light blue) governing gold.
We are also under 1524, which was good previous support.

I will look to add to my shorts in the 1520-1525 range for a move down to just north of 1500.
I like this because we are in a 60 minute bearish channel (magenta) and any move up in gold will bump into a confluence of the top of that channel and the 1524 level, which should attract selling.