Monday, June 6, 2011

FXE (Euro ETF) Short opportunity 6/6

To the left is the hourly chart of the FXE ETF, which is basically the spot eur/usd currency. I think it's finally time time to sell this pair again after a little bullish run recently. The yellow trendlines show the continuation divergence on the downward trend while the purple trendlines show some normal divergence in the most recent push up. I think this is the time to sell. Normally I would also wait for a canlestick pattern on either the hourly, 4hr, or daily chart to enter a new position, so I wouldn't call this a smooth jimmy apollo's lock of the week, but I think its still a good trade.

Crude Oil (CL) Put in an upper trendline? 6/6

The daily and hourly chart for crude oil hasn't changed much as it idles between the 101-98.5 range over the last couple sessions. Looking at the daily chart, the biggest support will most likely be found at the 98$ area where we have a couple lows that nearly got there and the 61.8% retracement of move up from the lows put in may 6th. On the hourly chart, it looks like we might have put in an upper bound trendline, now confirmed by three points (In yellow), and the last two points on this line were met with divergence in the MACD shown in yellow too. I think a break of this trend line and we head back to muddled middle ground, but otherwise I see this getting to the 96-98 level in the near future

Nasdaq (NQ) S&P (ES) Important support 6/6

Both the nasdaq and s&p are coming up on important levels to break if this downtrend is to continue. Both fall at their 61.8% retracement, shown in purple (@1291 ES, @2277 NQ), which also corresponds to two previous low peaks, one in early march and one in mid april. If we break through these levels, I feel it will be quick and probably will get a pullback this afternoon back to them before ultimately heading farther down. If you are bullish still in this market, this is as good of place as any to either pull of short positions or get long with minimal downside risk. I for one am keeping my shorts.

Gold to Finally Start it's Downward Correction? 7:05AM CST 6/6

(Chart 1 - Gold Day Zoom)
(Chart 2 - Gold Day)

There is a lot going on right now:
-1543 is a "weak 7/8" minor Murrey Math Line (google or see other posts for more info)
-1545 is top of current light blue bullish channel
-Most of previous 4 sessions stalled near 1543 and all closed under it after testing it (WD Gann 4-9 rule)
-1550.6 is recent swing high

I like entering here, with a stop of 1552-1555
1562.5 is ultimate resistance

All targets and scenarios detailed a few days ago here are still valid for this sale

(NOTE: I am currently short via long the GLL ETF)