Wednesday, July 6, 2011

Treasuries (TLT) Ready to resume trend 7/6

To the left is a daily chart of the ETF TLT which is basically bullish the long end of the treasury curve. The chart is a little messy so it might take a second to look at it, but basically we can see the retracements from the lows at 88.14 to our highs at 97.74 (in purple) and the retracement from 89.65 (low peak in trend which also produced a sub 0 MACD reading) to our highs again (in yellow). We can see price is just in the area where two levels from these retracement form a confluence at the 93.7-94.07 levels. We also notice that this area is the highs of the 3/16-3/23 date range. On 6/30 it put in a pretty good hammer through these levels and that hammers tail has held so far and today we start to break above its high. We can also see the green line which shows a trend of the lows matching up with the low peaks in the MACD histogram below. We are again seeing continuation divergence between price and the MACD as this ETF had seen on 4/10-4/11. I think this is a pretty good spot to get in on this trend and hopefully a ride to new highs.

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