Friday, May 27, 2011

Nasdaq (NQ) Intra-day report 5/27

It looks like today will be the make or break for being short equities. As we watch the nasdaq break out of its downward trend, crack its first retracement and look to head north into a long weekend, there doesn't seem to be much hope. I think the only thing that would make me feel comfortable going into the weekend short would be an afternoon sell off that sees us below the purple trend line and the 38% retracement. There is a little hope of this as we can see some divergence with the MACD forming (highlighted by the yellow trendlines), which at this point if it did sell off would be triple divergence. Most likely I will be out of this trade by the end of the day for a small loss but will update at the end of the day.

6 comments:

  1. Don't give up. This is a false breakout from my volume analysis. If what I'm see on the intraday time frame, they are just marking this up and to close this by yesterday's close. Let's see if I'm right, but if they can push this all the way into the close, then I will change my view too.

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  2. MrYinYang what kind of volume analysis are you doing? I look at volume some, usually when it coincides with a candlestick formation, but would certainly enjoy hearing more ways to use it in my analysis. And I agree, not giving up quite yet as I've seen plenty of late friday afternoon sell-offs, but I'm keeping my fingers crossed to atleast get below the 2330-2328 level.

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  3. I 2nd that Mr. YinYang
    Thanks for the post and the comments!!

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  4. VSA and Delta Volumne. What it tells me right now that price is moving higher but on such low volume, and the down swings are met with very heavy selling.... You won't see this on a classic regular volumne bar, you have to go deeper into what the volumne bar is comprised of. In the end, you have 2 camps, if the bulls are holding price up and absorbing all the sell vol, then they most likly will push this market near the end of day (and buying that breakout could be justify), while on the bear camp, if you need to sell you might need to mark this up to entice ppl to buy as they sell. The sell vol is much stronger right now but price is not showing it, that is why I said this is mark up. I might be wrong, but divergence like this is what I like to see if I want to keep holding my short. I have to say, Naz sell vol is not as strong as the other indexes. I trade mainly the russell. FYI... its also holiday trading so this could skew my analysis..... we will see Good luck!

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  5. MrYinYan I like that, you wanna maybe do a post on what you see? Let me know at deadcatbounce.blog@gmail.com if you're interested in putting something up

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  6. Sure, never really thought about blogging or posting except for commenting but I can throw up a chart of what I am see after I get back from lunch. :)

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