EURUSD at Good Spot to Sell? 12:45 PM CST 7/12

Here is a 60 min chart of the EURUSD future

Opened the week at 1.42, sold as low as 1.38 at night, now we are back at 1.40. You don't have to be a rocket scientist to figure out that it has retraced 50% of its move at this point. Combine that with some resistance just above 1.40, and further combine that with some high wick low body candles indicating selling in this area, and you have a compelling case to sell.

I sold 1.40 with a 1.41 stop.
My conservative target is 1.3775

Aggressive target is 1.3625

EURUSD update 11PM CST 6/1

(Chart 1 - Euro/USD daily chart w/ MML resistance drawn)

(Chart 2 - Euro/USD daily chart w/ mMML minor resistance drawn)

I think risk off (aka dollar on) is in effect for a bit.

Euro stayed put all day as stocks got mauled...

Then at like 1 or 2 PM CST it as well as gold oil and other dollar bell weathers got hit.

14405-14424 was key resistance. We got above it and then battled it all day, and at one point even made me think we might go higher in the face of the stock bloodbath.

Once it snapped back under 144, I felt like the short was the right side again, and the close only confirmed it.

I like selling pops today and fading into a short position.

I could see them trying to gun weak shorts out, as it looks like a good sale right now.

14400-14425 should be key resistance again...

Short term targets of 14310 and 14250 and ultimately 14160

(Again, for what Murrey math lines (MML) are, please

google them for some info)

Short Entry on EUR/USD? 9:00PM CST 5/30

(Chart 1 - EURUSD 60 min chart zoomed)

(Chart 2 - EURUSD 60 min chart)

(Chart 3 - EURUSD Daily w/ minor MML drawn)

(Chart 4 - EURUSD Daily w MML drawn)

1.4400-1.4425 is very strong resistance in the EUR/USD both short term and intermediate term. This recent bailout news got us to 1.4415 and closed at 1.4398 on the 8-9PM hour bar. I like selling the open of the 9PM bar (1.4399) for a move down to 1.4075 and ultimately 1.3675.

Be conservative in your sizing and liberal in your stop. This trade might be subject to 1 or 2 lurches and shakeouts with new highs on low volume before it makes its move for those targets.

You can always sell more once its makes its move and has a pullback.

(Note: If you see high volume doji and/or shooting stars in the 1.4400-1.4430 area on a small time frame chart, consider using that as your entry if you want to wait for one of those instead of just selling right here right now. Might not see one, but if you do, will be a much higher probability setup)

Good Entry to Sell Euro? 8:00 AM CST 5/26

After being wrong about selling 1.41, I am going to put my hand to the stove again. I sold after the 15 minute bar from 7:45-8 AM CST formed that shooting star. The MACD also had divergence(yellow lines). Combine this with this shooting star forming at the 62% fib level of the most recent real down move and I think this is a low risk entry. A real move over 1.42 changes my thesis.

EURUSD Morning Update 5/25 8:06AM

This last half hr bar (7:30-8:00) was important. Supply came in when the market hit the 1.4080 resistance and put a ceiling in and a recent 30 min bar double top. Look at the volume. That was a statement. Already the beginning of the 8:00 bar looks weak.

I am looking for 1.40 today

EURUSD Future (EU6) 60 Min Chart 5/24 08:35AM CST

Should this hour bar close under 1.41 and complete it's shooting star pattern off of the shallow fib at 1.41+, I think it could be a good low risk sell, with a target of 1.3980. Stop if Euro trades above 1.4115. (See previous Euro post for my more long term view)

EURUSD Future (EU6) Daily Chart 5/23 12:15PM CST

Having gone on a 2 day free fall reminiscent of the first half of 2010, the Euro now is flirting with the 1.39 level, which should provide significant support (middle of current bullish channel, 100 day VWAP (yellow), 50% of YTD rally)

A further breakdown from here could look to test 1.3550 level