Thursday, July 14, 2011


The USD/CHF daily chart to our left by request. This pair has been in a very well formed downtrend for quite a while. So the chart on the left at first glance is confusing but I will try to clear it up, I wanted to show how well formed this trend has been. The light blue retracement starts us out as this downtrend starts in early-mid Feb. After selling off to .9 we retrace almost exactly to the 50% level (shown in light blue). Drawing an extension of that move off of the 50% retrace, our next move lands between the 78% and 100% extension levels. We then retrace exactly 50% of this down move (shown in purple). Drawing an extension off this retracement level, we see that we land almost exactly on the 78% extension. After that we pull back almost exactly to the 38.2% retracement (shown in yellow). We go sideways for just a while which was a little unusual but finally break new lows just a couple days ago. With all this being said, I could see this most recent hammer off nearly the 78% level being a reasonable entry spot. On the other hand if the hammer is not confirmed, I would look for a signal between the 78% and 100% extensions, right around the .80 psychological level. I would think a signal there would produce a retracement of at least 38% or maybe more as it seems this trend is compressing slowly.

No comments:

Post a Comment