Gonna take a look at the NZD/USD here by request, and we have the monthly and daily charts as we are just passing new all time highs for the pair. As we can see in the monthly, when we reached our previous highs in mar/apr of 2008, we had strong divergence in the MACD on the monthly chart, leading to a huge sell off. Now it looks like we have a pretty healthy rally, with no real divergence forming. On the daily it looks like again, we had a healthy pullback on the move upwards with a retracement to the 38% level (@.775), and now we are looking to break our ceiling here. I think we break here and look to head up to .879-.88 area within a few weeks, and I would look to any small daily pullback to try to get in.
EDIT: Just to note, not a big fan of this trade unless we see a pullback to the .8 area, if so then I feel its buy buy buy.
would you expect sell off whith MACD divergence? is is chicken or egg?
ReplyDeleteWe got a sell off after the MACD divergence in 2008. That divergence was the first sign of that the meltdown was going to occur.
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