Nasdaq Constant Volume Bar 8:15PM CST 5/26

If you follow this, you know I am bearish the Nasdaq. See any of my recent posts such as this one. I will be the first one to tell you when I am wrong on something I said. I post all my pukes and make no bones about any of it...

That being said, I am still short this fucker and still think it is ripe to fall. I sound like a broken record, but sometimes you have to trust what you know to be right. Lets go to this constant volume chart (which plots each bar as the range price traded in for 5,000 contracts).

We have a confluence of resistance at the 2330-2340 area:

-Top of current magenta dominant bearish channel

-Bottom of old dominant orange bearish channel

-38% shallow Fib from May 2 highs to recent May 24th lows

If we can get above both of the aforementioned channel lines, I will wave the white flag.

Until then, I am holding.

Last Swan Song for Nasdaq Shorts.... 11:55AM CST 5/26

Still like being short (and still am), but it's now or never for them to work.
Price got back to the lows of the old bull channel (yellow)

We are also right back into the 50 (blue) and 100 (yellow) day VWAPs

Combine all this with 2327 being the 50% from May 19 high to yesterday's lows.

Sell right here, but a close over 2330-2335 and you should be out.

Nasdaq Mini Future End Of Day Macro Charts 5/25

Yesterday, I said the 2320 level would be significant resistance. Today's short covering melt up in the afternoon stalled in the very same area and came off it pretty good. I was scared a little bit watching my shorts get hammered today, especially when I added to them at 2307, but the last hour of the session calmed me down. Looking at it now, today was a proverbial dead cat bounce. Sell the pops, Nasdaq is headed to at least it's previous support of 2280, and most likely lower, to the bottom of the bearish magenta channel. If the Nasdaq can close back into the old bullish channels above it (blue and light blue) I will change my tune. Until then... STFP (sell the fucking pop)

Nasdaq Morning Update 5/25 8:02AM CST

After the Nasdaq took a mystery pounding over the Asian session, we got back as high as 50% of the pre selloff levels.

Look at the volumes (bottom white bars)
Supply entered the market in force and crushed it to the lows.

We have retraced that 50% with no real conviction of buys or sells.

I think the lack of buying volume at the end of that selling spree is bearish.

Combine that with a nice shooting star right off the 50% line on the half hr chart and I think this rally can be sold.

However, be a bit cautious, as I feel we might have one more buying climax (possibly stalling at 2307.5) before we head lower.

As always watch the volumes.... If we get increased volume when we get near the 50% or 61.8% lines and they are bearish candles (shooting star/ engulfer/ etc) get ready to start selling

Nasdaq Mini Future End Of Day Macro Charts 5/24

The Nasdaq was the leader on the way down today (as it generally is). Technically speaking, it looks weak as all hell and has room to run.

We broke back into the old bearish channel (purple) on Monday. Today we rejected the recently broken bullish channel (cyan/ light blue) and highs of the purple channel, as well as the 50 (blue) and 100 (yellow) day VWAP. We also closed significantly under the 50% line from Japan March lows to May 2 high on decent volume.

The current purple channel is my cap to the upside now until proven wrong on a closing basis.

2280 is first support (fib) with 2256.25 (2007 high) being very strong support.

However, I see these eventually cracking and Nasdaq getting to the midpoint of the purple channel sooner rather than later.

(Note: I bought SOXS (3x bear semiconductors ETF) when the Nasdaq popped into that resistance cluster. I normally book those trades same day for a minimal profit. However, I am holding this one for a few days or another good push down.)

Nasdaq to Continue Lower? 5/24 9:10AM CST

2320 is very important. On the daily, it is the intersection of the 50 (blue) and 100 (yellow) day VWAPs, as well as the most recent bearish and bullish channels. As long as we don't put in new highs for the day (currently 2324.25 on the JUN future), I am quite bearish the Nasdaq, with a target near 2245

Nasdaq Mini Future End Of Day Macro Charts 5/23

This coming session for the Nasdaq is going to be very important. Today we closed right on a

cluster of very important technical levels:

-Downside breakout of bearish channel (magenta) target (2315)

-Low of current bull channel (yellow) (2318)

-Deep fibo retrace of April low to the highs (2318)

-100 day VWAP (yellow) (2321)

It is tough to call at this point. Call it a hunch, I say we go a bit higher here and stall at the resistance at 2335-2340. I think the low of the old bullish channel (cyan/light blue),the low of the old bearish channel (magenta), and the Fibonacci cluster at 2336-2339 will be significant resistance should they be tested on a not too distant rally