Wednesday, June 15, 2011

Crude Oil (CL) Repeat of May crash? 6/15

On the left is a long term view of an hourly chart for Crude Oil, starting with the sell off in early may from its highs at 114.83 to today's activity. The purple channel is a regression channel drawn from its low after May's sell off to today, with 1st and 2nd deviations shown. We can see its stayed in this channel really well over the last month plus, and the only three times it has broken below (circled in white), it snapped right back and did so well before the markets settled for the day. We notice that today's trading has broken this channel and has sat outside of it now for a good amount of time and settled. I also present the previous two lulls in price preceding the massive sell off on May 5th, highlighted in yellow. While todays preceding price action was quite a bit more than the others, you can see how there is almost no retracement in these moves and just a straight sideways channel until the next sell off, similar to what we are currently forming. With all that said, The green extension is the price extension from the highs @114.83 to the lows of the meltdown, projected off the highs in the channel. We are currently sitting on the 50% projection, and while its a bold projection, I could see oil selling off hard to the 85 level very soon. We've discussed playing straddles or strangles in the option markets on oil, and it looks like that might pay off, and if you are still looking to play this, I would look to cheap option puts on bullish etfs.


  1. I put on some USO Jul 16 $36 puts @ .83 on the open to play this possible breakdown

  2. Also put on a decent chunk of USO Jun 16 $37 puts at .24 as a day trade