Saturday, June 18, 2011

Crude Oil (CL) Showing similarities to 2008 6/18

To the left is the daily chart of crude, side-by-side is the 2008 sell off with the 2011 sell off were in right now. I think the similarities are pretty important here, as we look at the 2008 sell off, we can see in the MACD a prolonged time of the MACD being above 0, and showing divergence (shown in yellow) as we reach its ultimate high (@147.27). The same can be seen for the most recent run up to our high (@114.83), and while there are a few other times this has happen, none of them have been met with divergence that sold it off quite like these two examples. Now we look at the MACD on the 2008 chart and see how after breaking through the 0 line, we reject the 0 line twice during the subsequent sell off. Scanning the last 10 years of data, I don't see any other periods where we have a prolonged time well over the 0 line followed by rejects of the 0 line to the upside like we saw in 2008. In 2011 we now have seen the first reject of the 0 line after breaking through it and look to head lower. I think oil is in store for another run lower and going back to an older post a target of at least 85 for the next move.


  1. SandwichHeavyInvestor,

    What are your thoughts on oil after the gains of the last 24 hours or so? Likewise for silver. Has your outlook changed at all? Interested to hear your thinking.



  2. Ozzy,

    It hasn't been great for oil, and I've gotten no real indication to add to my shorts so I haven't. I'm worried and not adding on but I'm another 2 dollars about from probably dumping at this point what I have left. As for silver I've never really been all to much for the short dolemite has like in the pm sector, hence I've only player with a very small position in either and nothing at the moment so I'm probably not best to speak on those. Thanks for the questions.