Wednesday, June 22, 2011

WTI Crude Oil Update 6:54 PM CST 6/22

(Chart 1 - Crude Daily Chart Zoom)

92 proved to be very strong support on a closing basis a few days ago. It is the bottom of the current trading range (92.25-95.25) and also coincided then with the low of the current magenta bearish channel crude is currently trapped in.

Where do we go from here is the obvious and important question? Let me start by saying that anything you do in crude at these levels should be kept light and your fades should be wide.

95.25 is the obvious resistance, as we are trapped in this trading range. However, I feel we will breakout a bit to the upside and challenge the midpoint of this channel (dotted magenta line).

I feel anything from 95.25 to this midpoint line will be a good sell for a move first to 93.75, and then an eventual retest of the 92 level. If you find yourself selling at around 97 (where the midpoint line is currently), then consider covering some back at 95.25, as this may be a pullback before we make a run at 100....

I am indecisive because of the hammer candle we put in at the 92 lows and what support it came off of. I feel this rally can be sold. However, I am cautious as that candle on the low of a down move can cause a sharp reversal, and crude always likes to move.

The point at where I begin to seriously doubt the short case is when we close above the midpoint line.

No comments:

Post a Comment