SNP Look at the Week Ahead 7/31

(Chart 1 - SNP Daily Extra Zoom)

(Chart 2 - SNP Daily Zoom)

(Chart 3 - SNP Daily )

Looking at the charts, I see 3 important bullish channels that can be governing current price. Using principles from the VSA bible "Master the Markets" (google it if you have never heard of it), and applying them to any of these channels, we can define the SNP as oversold.

This is bullet point number 1. We can further our bullish case by looking at the price action vs. volume on Friday. Although not a true hammer, we had price move well past the 2nd stnd. deviation (red Bollinger Band), and then close inside of it. This happened on far more volume than any of the previous days.

Based on this, and assuming this Debt Ceiling crap doesn't throw a giant curve ball in the next few days (which is a big "if" lol), I see this as a buying opportunity for a move up to the 1328 area.

SnP Mini Future Daily Chart 6:45AM 7/19

(chart 1 - snp daily chart zoomed)

(chart 2 - snp daily chart)

OK, here is the SNP 500 september future.

Price is bracketed between significant support and resistance.

We have support at 1295 (62% fib retrace of jun-jul rally and high of june chop/stall zone).

We have resistance at 1315-1309 (32% retrace of july selloff and prior shallow (32%) retrace of jun-jul rally) (also bottom of MML trading range at 1308.50)

I think we will get a close over/under this resistance/support in the next few days.

If it closes above resistance / below support, I think a 30 point move is feasible. (1345 or 1265)

I think we get a close over 1308 today and then go higher from here and test 1345

In the next few weeks, we may have a downside test of the longterm orange bullish channel (see chart 2 for scope of this channel). This has held for 2.5 years. If it breaks this, then the neckline of the head and shoulders sandwich is so fond of (search recent snp posts if curious) (also on my chart in white) comes into play.

SNP Start of the Week Analysis. Preopen 7/3

(Chart 1 - SNP Daily Zoomed)
(Chart 2 - SNP Daily)

Wow, what a short covering rally. Every day took out resistance after resistance, as the shorts fell over each other to get out of their positions and start the long weekend.

That being said, it is now approaching a likely stall zone.

1345-1350 (in the september snp mini future contract on the CME) is setting up to be an area of superior resistance.

1347.5 is a 5/8 M.M. line and the top of this sector's trading range.

We also have the low of an old and very strong bullish channel (light blue) that we broke out of on Jun 1st. If we rally into it, it should provide a good place to sell.

As you can see, both of those intersect for the Monday session.

I anticipate we will rally into it, and probably past it a bit.

When we get near it, look at 30/60 min charts for price action to indicate strong selling is indeed occurring at these levels (shooting stars, bearish engulfing, etc). If it is, I advise getting on board.

SnP Resistance Overhead. 6:09 PM CST 6/22

(Chart 1 Daily SnP future)

Sandwich did a post not too long ago here on the SnP as well, but I wanted to get my 2 cents in.

1279.5-1299 is the "trading zone" in MML theory. Essentially, it is hard for price to get in there, and once it is in there for 5 or so days it is hard to get out.

I believe that shorting this area for a move down to 1250 (whose speed is governed by the slope of the bottom of the magenta trend channel) will be a good trade.

A close with any conviction over 1300, and I begin to get bullish however.

SnP Chart 1270-1280 Should be Sellable Levels. 6:51 PM CST 6/16

(Chart 1 - Daily SnP Zoom)

(Chart 2 - Daily SnP)

The number 1 thing I am looking at is the bottom line of the magenta bearish channel we broke out of towards the beginning of June. As long as we stay below it, I am a bear. Sure there will be bounces, but you will use those to sell into now.

1269.5 is minor resistance. I am going to fade into a short position there, but save bullets for:

1279.5 is very important resistance. It is also right about where this line I talked about earlier is currently in space. If we get at or just above this line, I look to reshort for a move down to 1250.

Should we get down there I will take a good chunk off, as we could bounce to the magenta down trend line again. Eventually, I see us cracking 1250 for an initial test of 1230.5. From there any bounce to 1250 can be sold with pretty solid confidence. (but I am getting ahead of the market haha)

SNP Finishing a Dead Cat Bounce. 1279 Key Resistance. 7:16 AM CST 6/14

(Chart 1 - Snp September future 30 min chart)

(Chart 2 - Snp September future daily chart)

The SnP broke out of its daily bearish channel (magenta) Jun 6th.

Now the bottom of that is important resistance, and personally I don't see us closing back in it.

1279.25 is also very very important. Look at the 30 min chart with the tall upside wicks on the recent candles that are near this area. This shows others are selling here too.

If we run up into 1277-1280, I like the sale for a move down to 1250.

SnP Daily Chart Weekend Look Ahead 6/5

(Chart 1 - SNP Daily Zoom)
(Chart 2 SNP Daily)

We finally broke out of the 1308.5-1347.75 trading range, closing at 1296.25.

This is significant support as it is the conflunce of:

-Bottom of current bearish channel (orange)

- 38% retrace (shallow Fibonacci) of Nov 2010 lows to May 2 high

-62% retrace (deep fib) of March 2011 "Japan" low to May 2 high

However, 1308.5 is now the ultimate resistance. (keep in mind they can exceed it by a few points intra day, but a close of 1310+ gives me serious pause about this downtrend continuing.)

Readers know, I have been short the last few days.

I covered a good chunk of my position towards the end of Friday.

I see us getting back up to 1305-1310 soon.
I will be using such pops to add to current shorts and target 1290 and ultimately 1273

SNP Wrapup 5:40 PM CST 6/1

(Chart 1 - Snp day chart zoom)

(Chart 2 - Snp day chart)

Wow... what a day.

We came up to 1348, hit the top of the trading range and the bottom of the very important old bullish channel, and fell like a stone.

2.67 million contracts traded across all SNP futures (On the very high side)

CNBC had to pull every excuse out of the 'o8 bag for why we were down.... (Can't be because stocks are shit and smart money is dumping...)

1346-1310 is the "trading range" of this area(1250-1406). When we are inside it, we want to stay there. When we are outside of it, we have a hard time getting back in. (This and a lot of these funky lines and grids are part of Murrey Math Lines, which you can Google. I have the book which has info not on any site or forum.)

That being said... we are at 1311 currently. I took a scratch on some of my shorts 3/4 of the way of that sell off. Still short quite a bit. I am looking for buying off the 1310 to push us up into the Asian and European sessions, maybe even the US. We have NFP Friday, so it might take the release of the jobs number to get us through this 1310, and will be a dead cat bounce from now until then... Just means I can sell some more ;)

Oh as for targets and contingencies.... If we crack 1310, 1290 is short term and 1250 is ultimate support. If we bounce from 1310 I am looking to sell 1327 and 1343 with a stop of 1350.

SNP Mid Day Update 7:00AM 6/1

(Chart 1 - Snp Daily Chart Zoomed)

(Chart 2 - Snp Daily Chart)

1310-1346 is the trading range.

The light blue up channel was the dominant S/R.

Now that we are out of it, we are back against the bottom of it, as well as the top of the trading range.

If we can close inside the blue channel, I am a buyer.

If we reject it and close inside of 1346, I am a seller.

Are the winds of change blowing? Or will it be more 2PM 10 point melt-ups?

SnP Day Trader Road Map 7:45PM CST 5/30

(Chart 1 - Snp 60 min chart zoomed)

(Chart 2 - Snp 60 min chart)

I will be publishing a "Day trader road map" every evening for a few products. This should give key S/R levels on a more micro basis, as well as highlight possible plans for the days trading.

Here we have a 60 min chart of the SnP mini future (Jun11 contract) (NOTE: For all those who don't know what that is, consider it a fine proxy for the SnP index itself, or the .SPY ETF.)

For today's trading, 1335-1340 should provide resistance. Personally, I would fade this zone on the sell side, and take some down to 1329 with an ultimate target of 1321.

Combine that with that MACD divergence we have over the last 25-30 sixty minute bars, and I think strength can be sold with good confidence.

Should we get above 1340, the buy case most likely is in effect, but we will cross that bridge when we get there.

(Edit: Daily Canary has good unique overbought/oversold indicator posts about the Dow. Use them to further make up your mind)

SnP Mini Future End Of Day Macro Charts 5/25

Wow.... what a session. After a complete meltdown during the Asian hrs, we retraced it all the way and ended up pushing new highs for much of the day. High of the day stalled at the 50% retrace (1325) from the highs of May 19th, to the lows of today. This is also the 38% from the Japan lows to the May 2nd highs which was good support, and is now resistance.

As long as we don't penetrate today's high, I still feel rallies can be sold for an eventual test of the 1290-1300 support area. Any close over 1325 and all bets are off.....

SnP Mini Future End Of Day Macro Charts 5/24

SnP was far stronger than the Nasdaq all day and at one point was up on the day when the Nas was down 10+... It is the only index still supported by its 50% from Japan lows to May 2 highs and its 100 day VWAP (yellow). I see the current bearish channel (magenta) as the driver and it will not be able to break out of this to the upside in the near term.

The Fibonacci cluster just south of 1300 as well as the low of the current bullish channel (yellow) will prove to be very strong resistance and will almost certainly produce an initial bounce.

Overall, I am slightly bearish, the least bearish of all the indicees I look at.

SnP Mini Future End Of Day Macro Charts 5/23

After a very bearish 2 sessions, I think 1290-1310 will prove quite strong in standing in the way of an "oh shit" selloff of a week. I think we could go a bit lower tomorrow, but any lower will bring out buyers with strong support looming in the form of:

-all kinds of important Fibo levels between 1295-1310

-100 day VWAP (volume weighted avg price (yellow moving avg on the chart))

- Low of current bearish channel (magenta)

-Low of current bullish channel (yellow)

I am looking for a retest of 1325-1335 to sell into, but if you are one who likes to BTFD (buy the fucking dip), I think the support I cited will be strong

SnP Mini Future Daily Chart 5/23 10:00AM CST

Volume Weighted Moving Avgs (VWAP)

Red - 20 Day

Blue - 50 Day

Yellow - 100 Day

Having Broken Down off of the 20 Day VWAP and the top of the most recent bearish channel (magenta), and today having firmly gotten through 1320-1325 area, should we stay under the 50 day VWAP at 1316.75, I would look to see it test 1308-1310 (100 day VWAP and 50% from March "Japan" lows to May 2nd High).

Should it fall further, 1290-1300 will provide good support (low of bearish channel, deep fib retrace (61.8%) of japan low to may high, and shallow fib retrace (38.2%) of Nov 2010 lows to May 2nd High)