Crude Oil (CL) End of Day Report 5/25

I said in an earlier post this was gonna be the day to see where crude was headed, and it looks like it might have decided its to the upside. I still hold out some hope after seeing multiple shooting star candles being formed off the previous peak @ 101.45 that this may be headed downwards, however I feel much less certain. Again, if you've held on to a short this long, I don't think there is any reason to dump till we see it break into the 102 area, but be ready to pull the trigger. At this point though, if you have been looking to get long oil, this might just be that opportunity, especially if we get any downward movement to the 100-99.5 area during tomorrows session.

Euro End of Day report 5/25

I suggested in an earlier post that there might of been an opportunity to sell the euro on its retest of the 1.41 level, and it looks like you might of been able to be slightly profitable on that trade, but the pairs direction is starting to look muddled at the close. While were still under 1.41-1.4125 area, which lines up with the purple retracement and the yellow support / resistance line, it looks as though were forming an upward sloping trend line to the south. Usually this type of formation indicates an eventual breakout to the flat side of the triangle. I think there is still more money and less risk to the short side, but I'm not touching this.

Nasdaq Mini Future End Of Day Macro Charts 5/25

Yesterday, I said the 2320 level would be significant resistance. Today's short covering melt up in the afternoon stalled in the very same area and came off it pretty good. I was scared a little bit watching my shorts get hammered today, especially when I added to them at 2307, but the last hour of the session calmed me down. Looking at it now, today was a proverbial dead cat bounce. Sell the pops, Nasdaq is headed to at least it's previous support of 2280, and most likely lower, to the bottom of the bearish magenta channel. If the Nasdaq can close back into the old bullish channels above it (blue and light blue) I will change my tune. Until then... STFP (sell the fucking pop)

SnP Mini Future End Of Day Macro Charts 5/25

Wow.... what a session. After a complete meltdown during the Asian hrs, we retraced it all the way and ended up pushing new highs for much of the day. High of the day stalled at the 50% retrace (1325) from the highs of May 19th, to the lows of today. This is also the 38% from the Japan lows to the May 2nd highs which was good support, and is now resistance.

As long as we don't penetrate today's high, I still feel rallies can be sold for an eventual test of the 1290-1300 support area. Any close over 1325 and all bets are off.....

Copper (NG) End Of Day 5/24

Copper on a daily basis has been in a well formed down trend for over a month now, forming well defined lower lows and lower highs. I also personally think its important to see a trend hold its retracements, and especially its confluence of retracements which we see in the daily chart with the 38.2% of the green and 50% of the purple retracement around 4.1127-4.1285. Looking even closer on the hourly chart over the last few days, we see a good test and hold of the 4.05-4.025 levels. There is also some continuation divergence in the RSI as highlighted by the yellow lines. I think this is a good play to the downside right where the market opens tonight and easily see this making new yearly lows within a week or so.

Natural Gas (NG) End Of Day 5/24

As an update to the Natural Gas post originally suggesting a long position after a nice engulfing pattern off of support, I bring you the two charts to our left. I suggested waiting for a move down to get in and there was at least one opportunity today (@4.276), the 38.2% retracement of the move from its lows to its highs today. On a daily chart it looks like it has cracked and closed right about the first retrace of the sell off in early may, and the hourly shows it testing the retracement downwards intra-day, only to sharply reject it and head back up. I entered today on that quick down move and believe this position is still healthy and look to take some off at the 61.8% (@4.482) and only stop out if we fall and close below 4.2.

WTI Crude Future End Of Day Macro Charts 5/24

Goldman.

China.

All the shit blowing up in the Middle East.

Oil is a no-brainer buy right here right?

This guy doesn't think so.

But enough about the fundamentals. Lets go to the important stuff, AKA the charts.

After crude crapped itself from 114+ down to 95 it found a nice little range here of about 5-10 dollars off those lows. There is a bonanza of support at 95: Channels, Fibbonacci retracements, previous important daily gaps, etc. However, it also has good resistance now from 100-105. As previously posted yesterday by Sandwich Heavy Investor here on DCB, we think crude is going to crack that 95 resistance and fall to 85-90 in the next few weeks.

(Note: I bought DTO (2x bear WTI Crude ETN) when the crude hit 100 (per yesterday's advice by Sandwich Heavy Investor in his WTI post). I still have it on.

Nasdaq Mini Future End Of Day Macro Charts 5/24

The Nasdaq was the leader on the way down today (as it generally is). Technically speaking, it looks weak as all hell and has room to run.

We broke back into the old bearish channel (purple) on Monday. Today we rejected the recently broken bullish channel (cyan/ light blue) and highs of the purple channel, as well as the 50 (blue) and 100 (yellow) day VWAP. We also closed significantly under the 50% line from Japan March lows to May 2 high on decent volume.

The current purple channel is my cap to the upside now until proven wrong on a closing basis.

2280 is first support (fib) with 2256.25 (2007 high) being very strong support.

However, I see these eventually cracking and Nasdaq getting to the midpoint of the purple channel sooner rather than later.

(Note: I bought SOXS (3x bear semiconductors ETF) when the Nasdaq popped into that resistance cluster. I normally book those trades same day for a minimal profit. However, I am holding this one for a few days or another good push down.)

SnP Mini Future End Of Day Macro Charts 5/24

SnP was far stronger than the Nasdaq all day and at one point was up on the day when the Nas was down 10+... It is the only index still supported by its 50% from Japan lows to May 2 highs and its 100 day VWAP (yellow). I see the current bearish channel (magenta) as the driver and it will not be able to break out of this to the upside in the near term.

The Fibonacci cluster just south of 1300 as well as the low of the current bullish channel (yellow) will prove to be very strong resistance and will almost certainly produce an initial bounce.

Overall, I am slightly bearish, the least bearish of all the indicees I look at.

Russell 2000 Mini Future End Of Day Macro Charts 5/23

The bearish channel (magenta) is in control. Short term, the Fibonacci cluster at 8060-8100, as well as the 100 day VWAP (yellow) at 8135, should provide good support and prevent price from reaching the lows of the channel. A test of the channel midpoint should be the first test of if this thesis is valid. Should the midpoint provide meaningful resistance, I will be more inclined to discount the 8100 support and look for a test of the lows of the channel near 8000.

Nasdaq Mini Future End Of Day Macro Charts 5/23

This coming session for the Nasdaq is going to be very important. Today we closed right on a

cluster of very important technical levels:

-Downside breakout of bearish channel (magenta) target (2315)

-Low of current bull channel (yellow) (2318)

-Deep fibo retrace of April low to the highs (2318)

-100 day VWAP (yellow) (2321)

It is tough to call at this point. Call it a hunch, I say we go a bit higher here and stall at the resistance at 2335-2340. I think the low of the old bullish channel (cyan/light blue),the low of the old bearish channel (magenta), and the Fibonacci cluster at 2336-2339 will be significant resistance should they be tested on a not too distant rally

SnP Mini Future End Of Day Macro Charts 5/23

After a very bearish 2 sessions, I think 1290-1310 will prove quite strong in standing in the way of an "oh shit" selloff of a week. I think we could go a bit lower tomorrow, but any lower will bring out buyers with strong support looming in the form of:

-all kinds of important Fibo levels between 1295-1310

-100 day VWAP (volume weighted avg price (yellow moving avg on the chart))

- Low of current bearish channel (magenta)

-Low of current bullish channel (yellow)

I am looking for a retest of 1325-1335 to sell into, but if you are one who likes to BTFD (buy the fucking dip), I think the support I cited will be strong