USDCHF **REQUEST** 7/14

The USD/CHF daily chart to our left by request. This pair has been in a very well formed downtrend for quite a while. So the chart on the left at first glance is confusing but I will try to clear it up, I wanted to show how well formed this trend has been. The light blue retracement starts us out as this downtrend starts in early-mid Feb. After selling off to .9 we retrace almost exactly to the 50% level (shown in light blue). Drawing an extension of that move off of the 50% retrace, our next move lands between the 78% and 100% extension levels. We then retrace exactly 50% of this down move (shown in purple). Drawing an extension off this retracement level, we see that we land almost exactly on the 78% extension. After that we pull back almost exactly to the 38.2% retracement (shown in yellow). We go sideways for just a while which was a little unusual but finally break new lows just a couple days ago. With all this being said, I could see this most recent hammer off nearly the 78% level being a reasonable entry spot. On the other hand if the hammer is not confirmed, I would look for a signal between the 78% and 100% extensions, right around the .80 psychological level. I would think a signal there would produce a retracement of at least 38% or maybe more as it seems this trend is compressing slowly.

USDCHF Update 5/27

I discussed 4 days ago about the usd/chf downtrend looking to continue, and it doesn't look like I could have been much more right (not very common, so I must pat myself on the back a little). Its broken new yearly lows now and I would be pulling some of the trade off here and then looking to ultimately target the 100% level of the extension shown in yellow (@.8146).

Euro hammers 5/24 10:00 AM CST

It looks like the Euro formed some nice hammers against both the CHF and the JPY during yesterdays session, which might be a good indication that it can maybe pick up a little strength against one or both. The EUR/JPY looks like an excellent spot to think about buying at these levels as it tested its deep retracement and now has support off the 50% retracement (@114.96). It also shows some continuation divergence with the MACD and appears ready to continue its previous uptrend.

USD/CHF to resume downtrend 5/23 8:15 PM CST

It looks like the swissy might be resuming its strength against the US Dollar as we bump into the bottom of the most recent retracement and a reverse in polarity on the previous support (@.89 in purple). Looks like a good play to the short side with a break above the most recent peak (@.895) being a the signal to get out of any short for the time being. There is also some divergence indicating this trend is continuing as the MACD is just slightly higher now than it was at its previous peak (highlighted by the yellow trend lines).