Gold Look at the Week Ahead 7/31

(Chart 1 - Gold Daily SStoch, RSI, MACD Divergence)

(Chart 2 - Gold Daily Zoom)

(Chart 3 - Gold Daily)

Compare chart 1 to the price action on charts 2 and/or 3.

See how the momentum indicators in chart 1 make lower highs as gold makes higher highs in price at the same time?

This is a sign of impending weakness.

Furthermore with this point, SStoch and RSI are both in traditional "overbought" territory (+80 and +75 respectively).

One can also see that gold is governed by 3 bullish channels.
We are in the top 1/4 of all 3, which is an additional measure of being overbought

Furthermore, the latest daily bar has a nice upper wick after stalling at the 1640 resistance

Based on all this, I would say gold is a sell here. However, I usually like to have a nice shooting star in the price before I go short. I would sell here if you are aggressive with a 1650ish stop. I would sell a break of 1609 if you are conservative.

If this is indeed a top for the moment, then I expect price to fall to 1562.5 initially, and 1480-1500 finally.

Daily and Weekly Gold Chart Analysis 7/18

(Chart 1 - Gold Daily)

(Chart 2 - Gold Weekly)

1600 has fallen, like so many psychological resistances of the past in gold.

We are currently trading 1601.

Here is my "intelligent" commentary:

The orange daily/weekly uptrend is very well defined.

We are at the upper 1/4 of it currently (high is 1629 today)
Gold faces significant resistance at 1620-1640.

Although I think it is still very bullish, it doesn't present trading value as a buy for me.

1620-1640 can be sold if hit today or tomorrow, but i would use low leverage/risk if at all.

Regardless if you look to enter a sell, or a pullback buy, wait for 60 min candle confirmation before entering a trade!!!

Gold Triple Top with Strong MACD Divergence. Sell? 6:55 AM CST 7/12

Gold looking very toppy right now as the USD continues its tear to the upside.

Since Jun 6th, Gold has formed 3 separate shooting star reversals at the highs of the range (1550-1560). Each of those peaks have been confirmed with a lower and lower MACD value each time (see downsloping white line on MACD).

Couple a triple top, with strong MACD divergence, and thrown in that it is at the top portion of the channel it is in (light blue), and gold smells like a good risk reward for a sell here.

I sell here (1550) with a stop of 1565 and a target of 1505 (45:15 aka 3:1 reward:risk)

EDIT Stopped out

Gold Hanging in There, But 1540 Should be Strong Resistance. 7:50PM CST 6/16

(Chart 1 - Daily Gold)

I thought once we got under 1524 we would stay under it. This wasn't the case, and I lightened up my gold shorts.

I am now seeing gold trapped in this macro pennant bounded by the upper magenta line and lower light blue line.

1543 is strong resistance (weak 7/8 MML line).

The top of the pennant is near here as well at this time.

I think any thrusts into 1540-1545 can be sold for a move down to 1523 and eventually to 1504

Gold to Continue Lower. 1524 Now Key Resistance. 7:02AM CST 6/14

(Chart 1 - Gold 60 min zoom)

(Chart 2 - Gold 60 min)

(Chart 3 - Gold daily)

Feels good to be right (especially to the day!)

Hope anyone who reads along shorted with me.

Enough gloating... on to the charts:

We are now under the midpoint of the daily bullish channel (light blue) governing gold.

We are also under 1524, which was good previous support.

I will look to add to my shorts in the 1520-1525 range for a move down to just north of 1500.

I like this because we are in a 60 minute bearish channel (magenta) and any move up in gold will bump into a confluence of the top of that channel and the 1524 level, which should attract selling.

Gold to Finally Start it's Downward Correction? 7:05AM CST 6/6

(Chart 1 - Gold Day Zoom)
(Chart 2 - Gold Day)

There is a lot going on right now:
-1543 is a "weak 7/8" minor Murrey Math Line (google or see other posts for more info)

-1545 is top of current light blue bullish channel

-Most of previous 4 sessions stalled near 1543 and all closed under it after testing it (WD Gann 4-9 rule)

-1550.6 is recent swing high

I like entering here, with a stop of 1552-1555

1562.5 is ultimate resistance

All targets and scenarios detailed a few days ago here are still valid for this sale

(NOTE: I am currently short via long the GLL ETF)

Short Term Top in Gold? 10:10AM CST 6/2

(Chart 1 - Gold Daily Zoom)

(Chart 2 - Gold Daily)

Bought GLL (short gold etf) at 23.25

As I said here, I had liked buying gold for a move to 1560 a few days ago.

We got just over 1550 yesterday. Perhaps 1560 was ambitious.

I puke these shorts at 1552.

Will take most of it off for a profit when Gold hits 1502.

Will leave a piece on for a run to 1475 as well.

If this goes though, it could easily get to 1407 or even as low as 1347 (though that is a bit of a long shot, barring a verrrrrry deflationary jobs number tomorrow)

Gold Going Higher? Daily Chart 5/30 6:45PM CST

(Chart 1 - Gold Daily Chart Zoom)
(Chart 2 - Gold Daily Chart)

If gold can get back down through the support zone that it just broke out of (1501-1464), then I think it will fall to 1350. If that fails it is headed to 1200.

However, I still think given the way it acted when in the 1501-1464 zone most recently, we are headed up. I think any test of the 1520-1480 area can be used to buy and accumulate a position for a scalp to 1560 and an ultimate target of 1615. You are wrong if it trades convincingly under 1464.

6/5 EDIT: SEE MY POST FROM 6/2 OF WHY I NOW THINK GOLD WILL CORRECT LOWER BEFORE IT HEADS HIGHER

Gold's Recent Bounce To Be Tested? 5/24 7:28AM CST

It looks like the 1535-1545 level will provide good resistance to this recent rally. I thought the bullish channel break to the downside on May 17 was confirmation of May 2nd being the near term high. With us back in the channel now and above the bearish one (magenta) I think we get to 1525-1545. From there I think if we get higher, we make new yearly highs. If it stalls, I think 1500 or just above becomes the key support yet again.